Democratizing the New Egypt

Solidarity in Port Said

2012-02-17T18:35:00.002+02:00

Activists are trying to support the Coastal City of Port Said today with a massive march. The Nour party, is in attendance, as are members of the Muslim Brotherhood. There are reports of an economic blockade of the city.

There have been reports that police failed to act to stop the football riots in Port Said which resulted in so many deaths. Further, the riots may not have been caused by the ultras themselves, but by the thugs, which some argue are a tool of the SCAF to keep the country destabilized so that they can stay in power. The Attorney General of Egypt is planning to release a report soon on the causes of the deaths.

How A Tragic Football Riot May have Revived the Egyptian Revolution.

Attorney General to Charge Security Officials in Port Said Violence

Raucous Soccer Fans Make Ideal Egyptian Protesters

Policing Reform and Reforming Police

Homage to Anthony Shadid

2012-02-17T18:22:00.000+02:00

A great voice for freedom died yesterday. Anthony Shadid, one of the most important correspondents of the Egyptian Revolution, died of an asthma attack while on assignment in Syria. He was only 43 years old. He reported from the Middle East for two decades and had received two Pulitzer Prizes for his work. His voice brought us news from Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt and Syria. A Lebanese American, fluent in Arabic, his briliant, culturally contextualized reporting will be sorely missed.

Rest in Peace, brother.

New York Times article on Anthony Shadid

Al Jazeera article on Anthony Shadid

Egypt's shameful prosecution of Americans working for democracy

2012-02-10T20:09:00.002+02:00

The New York times published an interesting piece two days ago about Egypt's prosecution of 19 Americans for "manipulating the Egyptian political process, and "improperly collecting information to send home to the United States." (David D. Kirkpatrick, "Egypt's Premier Vows Not to Yield in Prosecuting 19 Americans," The New York Times, February 8, 2012.) The piece sparked my interest because it made me recall some experiences of mine in Egypt that could help put it in context.

Some of the groups involved include the National Democratic Institute, the International Republican Institute, and Freedom House, venerable democratic organizations all. As many as 10 foreigners including six Americans have been barred from traveling as part of a prosecution which alleges that these groups used "foreign funds to foment unrest in the country. There is a lot to say about this prosecution. Let me focus on three ideas raised by this story: paranoia and xenophobia about foreigners, the SCAF construction of an alternate reality, and active work against democratization.

First, there is a real strain of strong anti-American sentiment in the popular psyche among some Egyptians. Some view America as an imperial power allied with Israel. This prosecution plays on that fear. The SCAF loves to reference "foreign powers," who are responsible for everything from starting the July 25th Revolution, to provoking violence between Muslims and Christians, to now manipulating the political process. At a minimum, this incident should be viewed as a smokescreen to distract from public anger about military rule.

Second, the military junta has borrowed a page from the Mubarak Regime. They put an enormous amount of energy into creating an alternate political reality. Like the fictional Big Brother of George Orwell, or the real Soviet Union, the SCAF creates counter-narratives in the state owned press and the state owned TV. In these stories, the SCAF is protecting the beleaguered country from Israelis, spies, Qataris, thugs or other meddling powers intent on fomenting unrest. For example, according to the SCAF these foreign hands were the real murderers of civilians in Maspero, not the military. Although prominent journalists such as Sarah Carr and groups like Amnesty International placed blame for the incident squarely at the military's feet, according the fictional SCAF narrative, it was the Christians who attacked the soldiers in Maspero, not the other way around. One of the most distressing aspects of teaching in Egypt was seeing that some of my students, who were very educated and generally thoughtful, found the SCAF narrative persuasive.

Finally, I would put this incident into the category of a systematic attempt by the SCAF to stay in power. The SCAF does not want to relinquish power, and it does not want the government to be run by civilians. The military has significant financial interests in staying in power. Further, many argue that although Mubarak is now gone, the body of the many headed hydra remains, run by the head named SCAF. This prosecution should be seen as an effort to harass, intimidate, prosecute, jail and oppress persons or groups, whether Egyptian or foreign committed to the democratization of Egypt.

~WMB

Names of women in Egyptian parliament

2012-02-03T00:49:00.001+02:00

Dear readers

My beloved graduate student Heba Galal has gotten me the names of women in parliament.

You can find all the names of candidates in Shorouk News but in Arabic,

Here is the website :-

http://shorouknews.com/news/view.aspx?id=964be8e0-2cc9-42d3-bd48-926467373c67

Here are the names of the candidates of women in the parliament:-

Lists (332 seats)

1. Margret Azer (Al-Wafd /workers)

Second district of CairoNasr city

2. Sana AhmedMohamed Gamal El-Din (workers / Egyptian Social Democratic Party)

Second district of Assuit “Al Fateh”

3. Hanan Saad AboulGheit Hassan (workers / Al-Wafd)

Damietta Governorate

4. Azza Mohamed Ibrahim El Gerf (farmer/Freedomand Justice)

Second district of Giza (Bulaq)

5. Magda Hassan Alnuichi (workers / AlWafd)

Ismailia Governorate

6. Huda Muhammad Anwar Abdul Rahman Ghania(Categories / Freedomand Justice)

Second district of Qaliubiya ”Shubra Al Khaimah”

Individuals (166 seats)

7. Nehad Al-Qasim SyedAbdul Wahab Khudair (categories / Freedom and Justice)

Benisuef Governorate

10 candidates are being recruited bySCAF in the parliament-- among them 2 women

8. Suzey Adley Nashed

9. Brian Malak Kamal

Three marches planned today

2012-02-02T16:53:00.001+02:00

Well, it is Thursday. Most protests take place on Friday. But, this just in from AUC public safety:

DearMembers of the AUC Community,

Thereare three marches taking place this afternoon at the following locations:

· El Ahly club to Tahrir Square

· Ain Shams University to Ministryof Defense

· Sphinx Square in Mohandeseen to TahrirSquare

The Ministry ofInterior deployed 20 battalions and around 10 armored specialized vehicles fromcentral security forces to surround and protect the Ministry of Interiorbuilding in Down Town. Other Military forces are located there as well.

Sounds like today's protest may be big.

Football violence: why?

2012-02-02T16:50:00.002+02:00

The news from Egypt today is very distressing. There has been a horrible riot at a football match in Port Said in which hundreds were injured, and over 70 killed.

Outbreaks of football related violence have been linked to the absence of police on the streets in the post-revolutionary period.

From a psychological standpoint, I wonder why fans are turning to violence around football in this period? Is this an outlet of frustrations on other fronts?

I just learned the terrible news that an American University in Cairo student was among those killed. President Lisa Anderson issued this statement.

Dear AUC Community,

I am deeply saddened to report that one of our students, Omar Aly Saad Mohsen, a senior scheduled to graduate this February in economics, was among the 79 people killed in the tragic soccer match that took place yesterday in Port Said.

To mourn the loss of our student and the many other victims who lost their lives, the University will observe a day of mourning on Sunday, February 5. The University will be open but all classes are suspended and a University-wide memorial service will be held at noon in Bartlett Plaza.

We extend our condolences to Omar’s family and friends and all others who feel this terrible loss.

--

Lisa Anderson

President

The American University in Cairo

Recap of Election News for Egypt, February 1, 2012

2012-02-02T00:23:00.000+02:00

Dear readers

The Egyptian election has a lot of moving parts. Accordingly, it has been a little bit hard to keep track of it all. To date, I have written 29 separate posts on the Egyptian elections.

So, what do we know?

Women

One thing that I think is very interesting is how few women there are in the Egyptian Parliament. According to the best information I have, there are only 8 (eight) women in the Parliament so far. I assume that most of these women are from the Freedom and Justice Party or the Wafd, but I am trying to get names and specifics on this topic. Here is a good article on the same.

Ibtisam Barakat, Welcome to the New Egyptian Parliament, Jaadaliya,

In some of my previous posts, I had commented on which parties may or may not represent women. The lesson the liberal parties learned (I hope) is that if they really want a diverse party, they need to move minorities closer to the top of the list. It is my educated opinion [which does not make it a fact] that people actually voted for PARTIES, not individuals for the most part in this election. Here are some of my musings on the matter.

Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

No women elected to Egypt's parliament in first round

The Elections Aren't Over

Like the Egyptian Revolution, the Egyptian elections just go on, and on, and on, like the Energizer Bunny. The elections for the Egyptian parliament's lower house (People's Assembly) are not even over yet.

There are 498 possible seats. Only 427 have been decided. There are 71 seats remaining. As many as 45 seats will be determined by runoffs. They were supposed to have been held on January 10th, but I will have to look into that.

Shura Council Elections are (were) to be held on January 29th, February 14th, and March 4th in the same sequence as the PA elections were.

The date of the Presidential election has not been decided.

I was Wrong, but not far Wrong

Okay, how did I do on my election predictions?

Well, I predicted the FJP--the political wing of the MB--would win 30%. That was not correct. The FJP has to date won about 45.2%. So I was off by 15%. I predicted El Adl would win 15%. Oops! They only won less than 1%. I predicted that Revolution Continues would win 15%. I was very wrong there. They only won 2.34%. I predicted that the Egyptian Bloc would win 15%. They actually won 7.03%. So, I was wrong, but not crazy on that one. I totally missed the Salafi issue. Some of these errors are due to having lived in Cairo, and teaching at AUC, which is comparatively liberal and secular. Well, now we know.

More soon!~WMB

Good article on El Baradei's resignation

2012-01-31T00:45:00.000+02:00

Check out this great article written by my former student John Ehab. It is about El Baradei's decision not to run for the presidency in Egypt.

Following the high Islamist turnout in Egypt’s parliamentary elections, Mohamed ElBaradei, the former director of the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, and a major political player in the Egyptian revolution, withdrew from the upcoming presidential race.

"My conscience does not allow me to run for the presidency or any other official position unless there is real democracy," ElBaradei said in his statement announcing his decision. He added that those who are currently holding power in Egypt, the Security Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), are no better than ousted former President Hosni Mubarak.

One of the most important factors that effected ElBaradei’s pullout was the decision to establish the new constitution after the presidential elections, leaving the president’s role undefined until after the office is filled.

"It is a great loss, but an honorable political stance," says George Ishak, prominent Egyptian opposition figure and member of the National Association for Change (NAC), which ElBaradei founded.

Ishak anticipates that the military council and the Islamists, who make up around 70 percent of the newly elected parliament, will coordinate to back a candidate. “The two groups might surprise Egyptians by proposing a surprise candidate that will please both the Islamists and the SCAF."

Whether ElBaradei’s decision will limit the chances of secularists or liberals, it will not affect the influence that the Nobel Prize winner has had in helping build youth networks active in the Egyptian public sphere.

Reflections on the January 25th Revolution: A Luta Continua

2012-01-28T23:17:00.002+02:00

One year ago, I had just moved to Cairo, unsure about what was going on, just trying to get adjusted to the new city, and the new country.The Egyptian Revolution changed my life. I have always been a "democrat" and an activist at heart, and it revived my soul to live through a nation fighting for freedom. I think that the Arab Spring will play the role in my life, that the Civil Rights movement and African decolonization played for a previous generation.

I have had to leave Cairo. I am now in Little Rock, teaching at the Clinton School of Public Service. I will be returning to teach in Cairo this June. However, Egypt is still close to my heart, and I will try my best to comment and report on events with an eye to my experience during the Egyptian Revolution.

I teach a class called the dynamics of social change. As we have seen, a year into the Revolution, there is lots of work to still be done. That is, in and of itself, not a bad thing. Please remember that the French Revolution took nearly twenty years to complete. I have mentioned earlier in this blog that many countries that have gone through democratic transitions recently, including Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa often experienced long periods of partial transition. Thus, it would be realistic to assume that Egypt has a good ten to twenty years ahead of it before the democratic transition is complete.

That being said, Egypt has made remarkable, and bold strides. Unlike most Western commentators, I am fairly optimistic about the results of the recent parliamentary elections. It is impressive that elections were held. They were not completely free and fair, but neither were they totally rigged. The fact that the Islamists won is encouraging in the sense that the electorate did elect a completely different group into power than held power during the Mubarak government.

The reforms that need to take place in order to consolidate Egyptian democracy now are many. A valid constitution needs to be written by a process most of the electorate views as fair. The strength of the parliament vis a vis the executive needs to be established. Egypt, which has been ruled by the military since at least 1952, must now adjust to more civilian leadership, and a graceful exit be provided to the SCAF. Secular and liberal parties, newly born in the Revolutionary fires of last year, must establish themselves, and create a viable social base.

When I was in college in the late 1980s, and we were waiting for the end of apartheid, we used to say "A Luta Continua": The Struggle continues . . . There is a relationship between liberation movements in all times, and all regions. We are watching, Egypt.

~WMB

Egyptian Parliament convenes amid protests

2012-01-24T19:33:00.000+02:00

Egypt's lower house of Parliament, the People's Assembly, convened yesterday, Monday the 23rd of January. It's opening was contentious, as protesters rallied to demand an end to military trials, a handover of power to civilians, and retribution for martyrs.

Doctors marched from the Doctors Syndicate on Qasr al Aini Street. Meanwhile artists and intellectuals held a march from the Cairo Opera House. The so-called "Creativity Front" demanded protection for freedom of creativity.

As many as 2000 protesters lined the street leading to Parliament, which was protected by iron gates, riot police the Central Security Forces, who were in turn protected--somewhat oddly in my view--by hundreds of Salafis and MB members.

Noha El-Hennawy comments that it is not clear how powerful the parliament is in relation to the ruling military council. The MB Democratic Alliance holds 235 seats (47%), the Salafis 135, the moderate Wafd 38 and the Egyptian Bloc 35. There are 498 seats. A variety of independents, including NDP remnants, hold the remaining seats.

Supreme Constitutional Court Vice President Tahani al-Gebali states that the military council still holds the right to ratify or veto bills. This right comes from the temporary constitution in place which was partly written by military decree last spring.

Despite its drawbacks, the Egypt Independent observes that this is the "first fairly elected legislative body in nearly six decades." (Noha El Hennawy, "Egypt's New People's Assembly Swears in Today, but Powers Are Dubious," Al Masry Al Youm, January 24, 2012)

Egypt's Parliament voted Mohamed Saad al Katatny of the Freedom and Justice Party as People's Assembly speaker during its first session. Katatny received 399 votes. Before donning the mantle as speaker, Katatny served as secretary general of the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated Freedom and Justice party. In his first speech, he stated tat "We want to build a new Egypt: a constitutional, democratic and modern Egypt." (Staff "Egypt's New Parliament elects FJP figure as speaker," Egypt Independent, January 24, 2012.)

Elections for the Shura council will begin later this month and end in February. The two chambers are slated to choose a 100 member panel to draft a new constitution, although at this point, anything could happen.

~WMB

Egyptian State of Emergency Ends

2012-01-24T19:09:00.000+02:00

The head of the SCAF, Field Marshall Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, stated in a televised address that he has decided to lift the state of emergency.

The state of emergency, which has been in place for over 30 years, is being lifted as of tomorrow, to mark the anniversary of the January 25th Revolution. The state of emergency was extended, and indeed expanded, even after the Revolution by the ruling military council.

Tantawi stated that the law may still be applied in cases of "thuggery," although it is utterly unclear what that means. Arguably, the SCAF could be accused in many cases of thuggery itself over the past year.

~WMB

The New Year Creaks In

2012-01-19T01:24:00.000+02:00

Dear Readers

I do not know how you feel, but I feel exhausted, and the New Year has barely begun.

I think it is very interesting that El Baradei has withdrawn from the Presidential race. The cynics might say that he did it because he was not popular with the grass roots. Who knows? I really admire El Baradei, and I think he is exactly what Egypt needs, but then again, I am not Egyptian, so who am I to say?

He may be able to do better work on the outside as part of the "loyal opposition." I admire the crucial role he played in the Egyptian Revolution. There is plenty of work to be done to keep the Revolution on track, and keeping the SCAF honest as the transition continues. I think that El Baradei, with his global view, and intellectual, yet warm and compassionate persona (I have met him) is the right person to hold the transitional council to task.

Heba Afify, El Baradei's Withdraw from Presidential Race Egyptian Independent, (January 15, 2012)

He has vowed to focus his efforts on organizing youth and concentrating on the basic demands of the Revolution, including Bread, Freedom and Human Dignity. I think El Baradei will be Egypt's Gandhi.

~WMB

Considering the Talk of the Nation

2012-01-12T18:54:00.002+02:00

Dear readers

I saw this story on NPR. One Year Later, Arab Spring Still Reverberating

I like Lourdes Garcia-Navarro, but it felt like she phoned this one in a little bit. It is so hard to do flyby journalism and get it right.

For example, the Muslim Brotherhood did not win a "crushing victory." 45% is not a crushing victory. The Freedom and Justice Party was conservatively expected to get 30% of the vote. They exceeded expectations by 15%.

The lesson here, I think, is that suppressing, or attempting to quash extremist groups is a mistake. This oppression of the MB, which began under Nasser, allowed the group over 50 years to organize and strategy. It is not a surprise that their well oiled machine performed against brand new parties that were formed in March. The new government should take note and allow parties of all brands and stripes, no matter how distasteful, to organize and run.

As my colleague Hamid Ali and I said in a recent editorial in the Daily News Egypt, A Return to Common Sense Politics the more surprising fact, really is that these brand new parties have done as well as they said. Taken together, as I have mentioned in previous posts, moderate and secular parties won 25% of the vote. That is impressive. Of course, Al Wafd, which I place in the moderate category, was part of the loyal opposition under Mubarak. I was surprised Al Adl did so poorly. I was also surprised that the RCA refused to join the Egyptian Bloc coalition. That is a mistake by the secularists, in my view. In unity, there is strength.

The real test will come when parliament starts operating. There are two crucial issues in my view. The first issue is 1) can the parliament act as an effective check on the executive? and 2) Will parties like the FJP and Al Nour be able to deliver on a platform? Winning is one thing. Delivering is another.

~WMB

Some smart thinking by A. Rahman Hussein

2012-01-11T21:04:00.001+02:00

Here is a great post by my colleague Abu Rahman who sometimes writes editorials for Al Masry Al Youm.

Ten Reasons for Pessimism; Ten things that Need to Change

Here are some tasty excerpts. . .

The anniversary is coming up and with the new year behind us it’s a time to take stock. And looking back, despite the incredible highs, there are many causes for pessimism, for how things haven’t yet worked out as many thought. Here are just ten:

1- SCAF: Many reasons for pessimism are inextricably linked with the ruling council of military men that have taken over affairs of the country in the transitional period. There are enough to have their own separate numbers on the list but one reason that must be included is the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces itself.

Under this heading is a plethora of human rights abuses and examples of mangled dealings of a botched transition period. Violence against protesters is enough to be considered the norm, a barrage of abuses and thousands of civilians subjected to speedy military trials.

Add in a constitutional declaration that granted the council sole executive powers even though that was not voted for on the referendum, the delay in holding elections until pressure form the street brought them forward and a preciousness that makes the council skittish about any form of criticism.
Not to mention a media war and a slew of accusations against protesters for being conspirators, funded by foreign enemies (that have never been revealed) and turning Egyptians against Egyptians. Otherwise known as incitement. Factor in the events of Maspiro 9 October when military APCs ran over protesters and recent events at the cabinet that saw great army brutality against Egyptians of all ages, and a death toll that keeps rising.

And it ends with no manner of accountability whatsoever. No one from the military has yet to be held accountable for the numerous infringements of peoples’ lives this year. The ruling elite is above the law, just like it was in the days of the dictator.

Keep reading here Sibilant Egypt

Overview of People's Assembly Results, Round 3

2012-01-10T18:33:00.003+02:00

Dear readers

This is a report on parties I care about, mainly secular and liberal. The rest of the news will keep you apprised of the Islamists, right?

FJP holds 45.20% of seats, Al Nour, 25.20% of seats. Therefore together the Islamists hold about 70% of the seats in the lower house.
Al Wafd with 9% of seats, Egyptian Bloc with 7% of seats, RDP coming from behind with nearly 3% of seats beating out Revolution Continues (the bad boys of the left) with 2.34% of seats. The moderate Islamists Al Wasat with 2 percent. So according to my calculations, liberals and moderates currently hold about 23% of seats, which is not bad at all if they vote as a bloc.

427 of 498 seats in Egypt's lower house of Parliament, the People's Assembly, have been determined.

As many as 71 Seats remain. 45 seats will be determined from runnoffs from round 3. 14 list based seats are subject to a re-vote in Aswan district 1 and Cairo district 1. 12 seats need a re-vote for individual candidacies in Cairo district 1, Alexandria's district 3, Assiut districts 2 and 3, and Sharqiya districts 2 and 5. Runoffs will be conducted on January 10th and 11th.

Revolution Continues did surprisingly well in Daqhaliyya with 12% of votes, winning one seat on list one and one seat on list 2, and one seat on list 3. Three seats total were one by the RCA. Egyptian Bloc trailed with 2.62% of the vote, winning no seats.

In Gharbiya, Egyptian Bloc won a total of 2 seats. Al Wafd won 4 Seats.

In Minya, unfortunately, NDP remnants getting some play with 1 Seat going to the Freedom party. Al Wasat wins 1 seat, Egyptian Bloc wins 2 Seat, and the old school opposition, Al Wafd, carries 1 seat, as does the moderate Islamist Al Wasat.

In Qalioubiya, Al Wafd with 2 Seats, Egyptian Bloc with 1.

In Qena, Al Wafd with 1, and extremely confusingly, the SDP which is part of the Egyptian Bloc, with 1 seat. Three seats go to (bad) NDP cover parties.

Marsa Matruh, nothing for secular or moderate parties. In New Valley, the Nasserists make a showing with 1 seat! The RDP with 1 seat in North Sinai. I need to look into this group, but I believe they are affiliated with Sadat's son. South Sinai, Wafd, and RDP in the house.

More thoughts soon. ~WMB

Music as Social Activism in Arab Spring

2012-01-07T17:43:00.000+02:00

Dear readers

As I assemble my thoughts on the most recent round of Egyptian elections, let's take a few minutes to listen to this amazing story I heard on NPR yesterday.

Here is the story in print

"Rapper's Imprisonment Tests Moroccan Reforms." NPR.org

Here is an excerpt

"He is better known as El-Haqed — "the defiant one" — which describes lyrics explicitly critical of Morocco's social ills and the country's monarch. It's an attitude that also describes the young protesters of the February 20 protest movement. His supporters charge that this trial is an attempt to silence him — and them."

~WMB

Happy New Year 2012

2012-01-05T21:45:00.002+02:00

It has been quite a year! 2011 came in with a bang.

Let us hope that 2012 is a year for democracy, diversity and tolerance in Egypt.

Next up, election reporting.

~WMB

Status of women representatives in second round

2011-12-28T09:32:00.001+02:00

Dear readers

When I started this project of tracking what parties were running what women, I did not think it would be that useful. I felt like I was spinning my wheels and wasting time to satisfy my own personal curiosity. Several hours in, I just could not stop myself. But now, the hard work is paying off. See my post here Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

My amazing research assistant Heba Galal and I have translated the electoral lists of various parties, which allows us to evaluate the chances that women will be elected. Our first cut was to see which parties had women in the top half of their lists. i.e. if they are running 8 people on the list, do they women in slots 1-4. If they are running 12 people on the list, do they have women in slots 1-6, and so forth. A second cut is to see how many women total the parties are running. That may tell you something about the overall attitude of women in the party.

No women have been elected from the single winner system. I repeat, not one single woman has won as an independent.

In a counterintuitive result, there may be some women from the lists, and they are almost absolutely certain to be from the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated Freedom and Justice party. The FJP did so well in these elections, that in many locations, they got down to number 4 on their list, which means some women will be elected. It is also possible that women could be elected from Al Wafd. Their lists are not in good shape though, which makes it very difficult to analyze them, but I will try.

Recap:

The People's Assembly Elections are being run in the following order.

Stage 1:Cairo, Fayoum, Port Said, Damietta, Alexandria, Kafr el-Sheikh, Assiut, Luxor, Red Sea
Stage 2:Giza, Beni Suef, Menoufiya, Sharqiya, Ismailia, Suez, Beheira, Sohag, Aswan
Stage 3:Minya, Qalubiya, Gharbiya, Dakhaliya, North Sinai, South Sinai, Marsa Matruh, Qena, New Valley

El Adl seems to have a fairly high number of women on their lists, in my opinion. They are running 24 women out of 13 lists. As many as 8 women are near the top of the lists.
The Muslim Brotherhood seems to have slightly more than the bare minimum of women on their lists. They are running 38 women out of 37 lists analyzed. Two women are near top of the lists. (9 lists still need to be analyzed.)
It is rumored that some of the women on Al Nour's list are fakes, and are just the mothers or the sisters of party members, to meet the legal requirement. All women on the Al Nour list are on the bottom two slots.
The Egyptian Bloc: On 42 lists, they have 43 women. 9 women are at the top of their lists.
The published lists by Al Wafd are not in good shape. Accordingly, we are still analyzing them as quickly as possible. Women from Al Wafd might make it if they are ranked 1 or 2.

Here is a preliminary analysis of where women have a chance. A more fine grained analysis will follow.

FJP
(using information from their official website)
People's Assembly

6. Giza, the second list. One woman, Azza Mohamed Ibrahim Elgref, Rank 4 out of 10 candidates.
The FJP won 4 Seats on Giza list 2.
11. Dakhalia, the initial list. One woman, Siham Abdel-Latif Jamal, Rank 2 out of 8.
24. Qalubiya, the initial list, one woman, Huda Abdullah Abul Qadr, rank 4 out of 4.
25. Qalubiya, the second list, one woman, Hoda Abdel-Rahman Mohammed Anwar, Rank 3 out of 8.
27. New Valley, one woman, Mervat Said Abdo, Rank 4 out of 4.
30. South Sinai, one woman, Amira Abdel Hamid Taha, rank 4 out of 4.
31. Damietta, two women, Fakry Adham Abdel Razak, Etmaad Mohamed Zagloul, rank 3 and 5 out of 8.FJP won 3 seats on the first Damietta list.
34. North Sinai, one woman, Inas Mustafa Hamdan, rank 4 of 4.
35. Qena, one woman, Suhair Badri, rank 4 of 4.

Al Wafd
(using information from http://elections.masreat.com)
People's Assembly

1. Aswan, Waheda Shakely, ranked 1 out of 12, (this list seems flawed because it has more than 12 people on it.)
2. Giza, Maha Ahmed Omar Kashif, ranked 1 out of 12 (again, this list seems flawed because it has too many people on it)
3. Cairo, Wasaf Ali Ali, ranked 1 out of 12. (flawed list)
4. Helwan, Sherin Mohammad Hatata, ranked 2 out of 12 (flawed list)
5. Red Sea Governorate, Aza Abd El Fattah Ahmed 1 out of 12. (5 women total on this list)

Overview of Egyptian Elections after Stage 2 December 28

2011-12-28T09:30:00.000+02:00

Dear readers

Data from Jadaliyya. I have reorganized and done some basic analysis.

322 Seats Total have been elected so far.

Islamist parties
FJP=47.20%              152 Seats
Al Nour=24.22%         78 Seats

Secular and Liberal Parties
Al Wafd=7.76%           25 Seats
Eg. Bloc=7.45%           24 Seats
Rev. Cont.=2.17%          7 Seats
Al Adl=0.62%                2 Seats

Moderate Parties
Al Wasat=2.17%           7 Seats
RDP=2.17%                  7 Seats

Former NDP
Eg. Citizen=1.24%          4 Seats
National of Eg.=1.24%    4 Seats
Freedom Party=0.31%     1 Seat

Various Independents
New Independents           1 Seat
Arab Eg. Union               1 Seat
Union                              1 Seat
Independents                   8 Seats

Egypt's Minorities

2011-12-27T10:01:00.000+02:00

Bedouins in Alexandria. Photo Credit T.H. McAllister.

Dear readers

Not very much attention is given to the "other" in examinations of Egypt. Of course, we have found out in the past year that women, although they are 50% of the population, are treated like the other in Egypt.

But there are other groups that deserve attention. I am particularly concerned that at least some of these groups receive proper representation in the upcoming efforts to design Egypt's new constitution.

Under President Gamal Abdel Nasser, most European groups left, fled or were driven out. Egypt used to have a sizeable Greek, and Jewish population, particularly in Alexandria,but they are mostly gone. One can see beautiful, yet empty, shuttered and locked synagogues in Old Cairo and in Old Alexandria. There is some Jewish population in Egypt, but it is incredibly small, and hard to measure, due to the intense anti-zionist sentiment here. The American-Israeli cooperative Enterprise estimates their numbers at less than 100 in 2004.

Another group we do not hear much about are the Baha'i. The Bahai are a religious group who recognize Bahaullah as their prophet. They have a very nice message about the unity of humankind. However, they are fiercely oppressed in Egypt. They are not allowed to have ID cards showing their religion. (Although I think the fact that ID cards show your religion is a bad one in principle.) The only religions you are allowed to list on your IDs include Jewish, Islam and Christianity. As a result, many Bahai have difficulty getting birth certificates, passports, and other crucial documents. They are routinely discriminated against and stigmatized. They probably number around 5000, or less.

I have devoted many pages to the persecution of Copts and other Christians. Approximately 9 percent of the Egyptian population are Coptic Christians. Coptic Christians are one the oldest groups in Egypt. The Pharaonic temples have evidence of Church activity in them. At one point, far before the advent of Islam, all of Egypt was officially Christian. The holy family is said to have sojourned through Egypt, and several monasteries throughout Cairo, Upper Egypt, and the Sinai attest to this.

There is significant discrimination against Copts. People are discriminated against in employment, and being a Christian may be a bar to promotion in majority settings. Churches can only be built with permits, which must be applied for from the government. Recent clashes in Imbaba and Maspero have been touched off in part around conflict regarding Church building. Here are some materials regarding Copts and Maspero. Further, marriage between Christian men and Muslim women is forbidden, and can touch off violence in rural areas. In the ongoing election, people have campaigned against the Kotla by saying that it is the "Christian party." One of the most poignant moments I have experienced in Egypt was when I tried to comfort one of my colleagues after the Maspero Massacre, and she burst into tears, as did then I, as we embraced.

The Egyptian majority also do not like Shia Muslims very much. Regardless of the size of these small religious communities, their protection requires a secular state that ensures religious protection for minorities.

I have fallen in love with the Nubian people during my time in Egypt. They have their own language, and a distinct architecture and culture. There land was largely submerged when Lake Nasser was created as part of the Aswan Dam. They were relocated to villages. The novel Dongola, and another book, The Nubian Women of West Aswan, give some insight into their plight. Please look at my page on Books@Egypt for more details. One of the most beautiful and scenic things I have seen during my time in Egypt was a cute Nubian village along the Nile in Aswan. Although the Nubian dynasty of the Pharaos was one of the most successful Egypt has ever seen, the plight of the Nubian people currently reminds me of the plight of the Native Americans in the United States.

I also am concerned that the Siwans, the Bedouins, and other indigenous tribal people have a say in the upcoming Egyptian constitutional process.

~WMB

Merry Christmas, Cairo

2011-12-26T15:39:00.000+02:00

Dear readers

I hope that everyone is enjoying the holidays in their own fashion. I spent the morning and lunch with Bahai and Muslim friends and their children in my apartment in Rehab City in Cairo. We then spent the late afternoon with Christian friends in Maadi, Cairo. My friends in Maadi had a beautiful Christmas tree decorated with bells, and ornaments and lights. It was really nice to get together around food, with minimal presents, and just a lot of nice people and holiday cheer.

The protest for women's rights in Tahrir on Friday the 23rd of December was quite successful. At least 4000 people attended. No one was killed, and no one was injured. Sarah Carr reports that people chanted "The women of Egypt are a red line."

Jaadaliya reports that prominent blogger Alaa Ebd Al Fattah was released from prison on Christmas. During his time in custody, his first child Khaled was born. All defendants in the Maspero case have been released this month. That is an excellent present of free speech for Christmas. I also heard this news from my medical doctor, whom I visited this morning, because my son was sick.

I asked my doctor how his Christmas was. He told me that he and his family did his best to enjoy, despite the difficult circumstances. He said he was really shocked about the violence the military had shown against civilians and women recently.

The Copts in Egypt celebrate their Christmas on January 7th, the date Christianity refers to as the epiphany, or the 12th day of Christmas. Apparently, this corresponds to the 29th day of the Coptic Month Kiohk. There is a small difference between the Coptic calendar and the Gregorian calendar.

As for me, I am praying for peace and fairly conducted elections in the New Year.

Yours, Warigia

Women's Rights on the front line as clashes in Egypt continue

2011-12-20T20:38:00.003+02:00

Military police attack a female protester. Photo Credit Al Masry Al Youm.

Dear readers

Women's rights are at the forefront of the revolution. I am following the election closely, but so far, no woman has been elected from the party lists. I am in close contact with people from UNDP, as well as with people from various political parties, and as soon as I get a confirmation, I will publish the names of any women elected.

Otherwise, you may have heard that a female protester--who was veiled-- was beaten and stripped in the street. Another elderly woman was seen threatened by a police truncheon. It is no secret that Egypt has some concerns around the treatment of women. In addition, women protesters were subjected to torture in the form of virginity tests in March. Sexual harassment is rampant, and we see that only three women are represented in Ganzouri's cabinet.

Hilary Clinton, Secretary of State of the United States, has expressed her deep concerns and outrage about this violence against women.

According to Al Masry Al Youm, "Nineteen political groups and several activists have called on Egyptians to attend a mass demonstration in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Friday under the slogan 'The free women of Egypt — restoring honor.'"

Check out this article from Jadaliyya on a recent women's march.

10000 Egyptian women march against military violence.

~WMB

Violence in Tahrir Ebbs

2011-12-19T14:49:00.000+02:00

Two good links about violence in Tahrir

"Tahrir Calm as death toll from last night's clashes rises" Al Masry Al Youm

"Urbanizing the Counter Revolution" Jadaliyya

"Female Protesters Systematically Targeted" Egypt Independent

~WMB

Big Brush Stroke Overview of Egypt Election Results Round 2

2011-12-19T12:46:00.000+02:00

FJP election poster in Luxor. Photo by the author.

If you want detailed election results, click here Jaadaliya Election Results .

Here is the big picture.

Aswan, [6 Seats] the usual. FJP 2 seats, Al Nour 1 Seat, Egyptian Bloc, 1 seat. Single winner runoff between FJP, Wafd, and Al Nour.
Sohag, [30 Seats] FJP, Al Nour, Egyptian Bloc and Nasserites. District 2 list postponed due to irregularities.
Beheira, [30 Seats] FJP with 60 % of the votes, Al Nour 25 %, trailed by Al Wafd and Egyptian Bloc.
Suez, [6 Seats] Al Nour with more than 50% of the votes (2 seats), FJP with 25% (1 Seat), and Egyptian Bloc with 15 % (1 Seat).
Ismailia, [6 Seats] FJP 2 Seats, Al Nour 2 Seats. The Islamists dominated the vote.
Sharqiya, [30 Seats] FJP 40% of vote, Al Nour 25% of vote, Al Wafd 13 % of the vote, and Egyptian Bloc, 10% of the vote, Revolution Continues 4% of vote.
Menoufia [24 Seats] One list vote postponed due to irregularities. FJP, Al Wafd, Al Nour.
Beni Suef [18 Seats] FJP, Al Nour, Al Wafd, Revolution Continues, in that order.
Giza [30 Seats] FJP, Al Nour, Egyptian Bloc, Al Wafd and Revolution Continues Alliance, in that order.

Good News and Bad News

2011-12-17T17:02:00.003+02:00

Photo Credit Al Jazeera. Protester shouts slogans during clashes today.

Dear readers

Well with regard to the elections results, there is good news and there is bad news.

Let's start with the less than perfect news first. The FJP and Al Nour continue to lead in the second phase of the People's Assembly elections.

Some bad news is that there is fire in Tahrir. My father was just there. Apparently, some of the field hospitals have been attacked, and twitter is reporting that surgeons are needed. There is a big march to bury Sheikh Emmad Effat, but the Salafis are not present.

The good news is that the Egyptian Bloc is retaining their position as a solid third. In a first past the post system, like in the US, third does not sound good. But in a partially list based system, third gives the liberal and secular Egyptian Bloc some real power in Parliament.

Al Wafd and Al Wasat are doing well in Sharqiya. Al Nour is dominating in Suez.

Secular activists have not given up though. As I have said, it is remarkable that the Egyptian Bloc and other moderate and liberal parties are doing this well, particularly considering that they just formed in March. There is real potential for infighting between Salafis and the FJP. As Adel Soliman of the International Center for Future and Strategic Studies points out, the liberal parties will be needed to pass laws or block them.

Several smaller parties are throwing their weight behind the Bloc to show a more united front. (Daily News Egypt 11/12) Members of the Bloc are going into rural areas, and talking to local notables.

I personally think it is a serious mistake that the Revolution Continues refuses to coordinate with the Egyptian Bloc.

Egypt Elections Update, Wednesday, December 14, 2011

2011-12-14T16:03:00.001+02:00

Egyptian campaign posters in Luxor in November. Photo by the author.

If you are looking for comprehensive election results, check here. Jaadaliya Election Results

http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/3331/egyptian-elections_preliminary-results_updated-

Here are some choice selections from their pages. I added some description of the parties on the bottom chart.

Seat Breakdown (as of Sunday 4 December*)

Party/Coalition	Party-list Seats	Single-Winner Seats	Total
Freedom and Justice**	40	2	42 (40%)
Al-Nour***	26	0	26 (25%)
Egyptian Bloc	13	0	13 (12%)
Al-Wafd	10	0	10 (9%)
Revolution Continues	4	1	5 (4%)
Al-Wasat	4	0	4 (3%)
Reform and Development	2	0	2
National Party of Egypt	1	0	1
Egyptian Citizen	1	0	1
Freedom	1	0	1
Independents	-	1	1
Total	102	4	106
Seats Remaining	230	162	392

* Includes all but Cairo's party-list district #1 (Al-Sahel voters are scheduled to re-vote on January 10-11).

** Freedom and Justice list includes candidates from the parties of the "Democratic Alliance for Egypt"

*** Al-Nour's list includes candidates from the parties of the "Islamist Bloc"

Nationwide Vote for Party Coalition Lists (as of December 14th)

Party/Coalition List	Votes	% Votes
Freedom and Justice* (Islamist/right)	3565092	36.62321885
Al-Nour** (Islamist/far right)	2371713	24.3639615
Egyptian Bloc (liberal/left)	1299819	13.35268647
Al-Wafd (old school liberal)	690077	7.088973018
Al-Wasat (Islamist/moderate)	415590	4.269242848
Revolution Continues (left)	335947	3.451092006
Reform and Development (no idea!?)	185138	1.901872235
National Party of Egypt (NDP)	153429	1.576134317
Freedom (NDP)	136784	1.405144767
Adl (liberal/3rd way)	76769	0.788627022

Egypt elections beyond ideology: A return to common sense politics

2011-12-14T11:58:00.002+02:00

Egypt elections beyond ideology: A return to common sense politics

By Hamid Eltgani Ali and Warigia Bowman

December 13, 2011, 5:00 pm

The first round of Egyptian parliamentary elections is drawing to a close, but in another sense, Egyptian multi-party politics is just beginning. After a partially successful revolution, Egypt is now on a crash course to multi-party democracy. Other countries that have gone through major political transitions from dictatorship to democracy generally have had decades to make the transition. The question many Western observers are asking now is what shape will Egypt’s nascent democracy take? Will it more closely resemble the secular Turkey, or the more theocratic Iran?

As news reports have indicated, the results of the first round of elections have been discouraging for those who support a secular state in Egypt. Based on our quantitative analysis of publicly available ex post election data after the first round of voting, the Islamists performed exceptionally well in comparatively rural areas with low political capital such as Fayoum and Luxor.

By contrast, liberal and moderate parties, taken altogether, won only 27 percent of total votes and performed relatively well in highly urbanized areas of high political capital like Cairo, Alexandria and Port Said. Liberal candidates are likely to do worse in the second and third rounds of voting which will be held in parts of rural Egypt that are likely to be less progressive and politically sophisticated than Cairo, the Red Sea and The Delta.

Given results in the first round of the Egyptian elections, what lessons can be learned?

Keep reading here: Daily News Egypt: A Return to Common Sense Politics

No Fear

2011-12-13T14:34:00.001+02:00

I had a very interesting interview with one of the founding members of the Social Democratic Party today.

She said a few things I found fascinating. She mentioned that she got into politics through the Kefaya movement ("Enough"), which first emerged in around 2004. I found it interesting that she learned about the movement in part through their website and an opposition chat room. Further, she mentioned that she actually registered for the SDP by filling out an application on their website. I find it intriguing how much these new parties used information technology.

I asked her if she was worried that the government would track her if she signed up online. She said, that in the time of the Kefaya, in the time before the Revolution, she was afraid. Since the Revolution, she is no longer afraid. She said that in this post-revolutionary period, "fear is over," and she did not hesitate to become politically active.

~WMB

Low turnout in Egyptian election and other news

2011-12-07T16:20:00.001+02:00

Egyptian Expatriate expresses enthusiasm about the Revolution. Photo Credit, Al Masry.

Dear readers,

So not many voters turned out for the runoff on Monday. I heard this from my student who worked for the UN in elections, as well as the news. This is either going to be great news for the Egyptian Bloc, or terrific news for the Salafis. Unfortunately, a lot of runoffs were between FJP and salafis, so I hope people had the sense to vote FJP. The devil you know. . . .

Basically, a lot of people did not really understand that they had to vote again to finalize their decision. Many people said they "had done their part."

I was relieved and thrilled that my Arabic teacher voted for Kotla, (the Egyptian Bloc) but she lives in upmarket Heliopolis, so that is to be expected. She also voted for Amr Hamzawy. He is my colleague here in public policy. We hope he will teach again next semester.

The apparently incompetent Egyptian Higher Elections Commission noted that "it had made a mathematical error" when it estimated turnout at 62% a few days ago. It appears turnout is closer to 52%, according to Abdel Moez Ibrahim, head of the election body.

It appears that God, is in fact, merciful, because the Salafis, whom I am sure Mohammed (Peace Be Upon Him) would not approve of, "will not accept living in the shadow of the Freedom and Justice Party" ("Head of Salafist Al Nour Party Rules Out Alliance with Muslim Brotherhood," Ahram Online, December 6, 2011) Yet, they may be willing to form a wider coalition.

I am also praying to Allah/Yehova/God that the votes of the Egyptian expatriates help a bit. According to Al Masry Al Youm, "Fifty Egyptian embassies abroad sent vote counts from the run-off elections to the Foreign Ministry, ministry spokesperson Amr Roshdy said Tuesday."

AUC Faculty Experts Dissect Election Results

2011-12-07T11:32:00.001+02:00

Reposted from AUC Egypt Daily email newsletter

News at AUC December 7, 2011

In the first round of Egypt’s post-revolution parliamentary elections, which were held in nine governorates including Cairo and Alexandria, Islamist parties won 65 percent of all votes cast for parties, with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party winning 36.62 percent, followed by Al-Nur Party of the hardline Salafis with 24.36 percent and Al-Wasat Party with 4.27 percent. Meanwhile, the liberalist secular alliance, the Egyptian Bloc, secured 13.35 percent of the votes, and the New Wafd Party got 7 percent.

“The coming struggle will most likely be between the Democrats and Islamic fundamentalism,” said Ezzedine Fishere, distinguished lecturer of political science. “That might be a more difficult and protracted struggle, and will have an uncertain outcome. But it will be, I believe, the last political obstacle standing between us Egyptians and a liberal democracy.”

Results in the first round of elections have raised complex questions about Egypt’s future and where it is heading in this new political landscape – one in which Islamists seem to be the dominant force in the country’s transition from military rule. “The scene in Egypt may lead Egyptians to shortly replace police dictatorship with a theocratic dictatorship,” said Said Sadek, a faculty member in the Department of Sociology, Anthropology, Psychology and Egyptology. “The task after the elections is immense, especially for the Egyptian economy. A Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi government would further plunge the economy to an abyss. People will rise up in a new revolution against them but after more political and economic disasters would have befallen the Egyptian economy, society, women, religious minorities and human rights.”

Samer Soliman, assistant professor of political science, expressed a different viewpoint. “The Muslim Brotherhood today is different than that of a decade ago; it has developed and matured,” he said. “Despite some violations, the Muslim Brotherhood worked hard and has a strong base among people; therefore, the results are logical. The liberalists should now organize themselves and work harder to secure a similar popular base among the people.”

Soliman was quick to point out, however, that the “Muslim Brotherhood now has the right to help in the formation of government, but it will never have the right to infringe on human rights.”

While some chose to boycott the elections in light of the recent violence in Tahrir, Khaled Fahmy, chair of the history department, feels the elections were vital. “With these elections, Egypt passed a huge step toward democracy,” he said. “Even though I am against the boycott, I understand and respect those who were calling for it. I do believe, however, that participating in elections is one way, among many, including continuing the Tahrir sit-in, to force the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) out of the picture.”

Nevertheless, Fahmy is discontent with the run-up to the elections. “The law governing elections is a disastrous one that combines the worst features of the single-candidate district model with the worst features of the proportional representation model,” Fahmy explained, adding that “SCAF’s cavalier policies confused both voters and candidates and effectively dissipated the efforts of the new parties, as well as the more established ones, and distracted them to side issues instead of giving them the opportunity to reach out to voters, sharpen their messages, present credible electoral programs and build grassroots organizations with their constituencies. I strongly believe that the Egyptian people deserve a much better elections law than this one, and that after the January 25 Revolution, we were entitled to a much better, more substantial election campaign than what we witnessed.”

With the second and third round of elections looming ahead, as well as the drafting of a new constitution for the country and the 2012 presidential elections, Fishere predicts that Egypt will be witnessing an intense struggle between the Islamists, the military and the liberals. “This election has revealed the relative strength of the different forces in society, and the Islamists now feel more confident,” he said. “Egyptian Democrats who focused their energies on resisting the rule of the military will now have to fight on two fronts.”

No women elected to Egypt's parliament in first round

2011-12-07T10:45:00.001+02:00

Woman voting in Egypt. Photo credit Carnegie Endowment.

Crowd in Tahrir Friday, December 2. Note veiled woman in jeans in foreground. Photo credit, the author.

Dear readers

No women have been elected from the lists in Egypt's first round of elections. In addition, absolutely no women made it into runoffs from the single winner component of the election in the first round.

I spoke with high ranking women activists in Egypt. Many said that the most important consideration was not gender, but the electability of the candidates. This makes a lot of sense in the single-winner portion of the elections, but I am wondering if this argument makes as much sense for the list portion of the election.

It appears people voted based on what they felt the electoral blocks, or parties represented. They did not vote so much based on the individual candidate. This position of mine appears to be strengthened by the fact that people's preferences in the single-winner portion of the election closely tracked their behavior in the list section.

I find the absence of women in the first round particularly distressing for two reasons. First, women are at least 50% of the Egyptian population. Second, there is a concern that some parties that have recently been elected do not believe that women have the right to hold complex or high profile jobs.

The secular political parties need to rethink their strategy on getting women elected. In particular, it appears that if secular parties want women to get elected, they need to place them in slots 1 or 2 in selected districts where the party is expected to do well. ~WMB

Good article on women in parliament

2011-12-04T09:50:00.001+02:00

Check out this great article. in Jaadaliya

Women Turn Out in High Numbers, yet their share in parliament likely to be slim.

Then read my post.

Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

Cheers, WMB

The Glass is One Third Full

2011-12-03T12:37:00.001+02:00

Dear Readers

Well, the FJP (aka Muslim Brotherhood) was expected to win big, so no surprise there. However, the Al Nour is a big surprise, and frankly, a shock.

However, I am very happy that the Egyptian Bloc, which consists of Free Egyptians, the Social Democratic Party and Tagamoo looks like it is doing well. I spoke to a top party member at Groppi cafe yesterday, and he tells me that he is getting an outpouring of support for the remaining two areas where elections have not yet been held. At least there will be some, significant liberal and secular representation in parliament.

Those radicals and leftists who urged people not to vote made a big tactical error. In addition, it would seem that in the next set of elections, all liberal and secular parties would be well advised to work in one bloc, and unite forces.

As I tell my students, democracy is an iterative process. We need to prepare to do better next time.

~WMB

Very preliminary Election Outcomes

2011-12-02T18:57:00.001+02:00

Updated December 6, 10:54 a.m.

This post will summarize election outcomes in an easy to read format. The best way to find up the minute info on this is to look here. Jaadaliya Election Results .

The value added of looking here is that I just give you the bare facts. It is a bit easier to read.

According to Jaadaliya, "Exit polls and preliminary vote count show that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists are expected to finish first and second in the first phase with the liberal Egyptian Bloc a distant third."

Votes will supposedly be announced tonight, although they said that yesterday too. Worried laughter . . .

No official results as of Sunday, results and percentages are still trickling in . . . .
Also, apparently (as of Sunday December 4, 2011) there is some confusion with what to do when the extra votes. i.e. how will the seats be allocated for parties who make the cutoff, but get few votes.
As of Tuesday December 6, 2011, there was very low turnout for the runoffs last night. One of my students works for the UN observation team and she noted this.
This cool chart was published by the Arabist on Saturday. It may no longer be up to date, but gives some preliminary visuals. Chart for Round One of the Elections

My latest information is that no woman has been elected in the first round.

I will get results up as fast as I can. Lists are completed, still working on single winners. All results are not final. Runoffs for first leg of single-winner tomorrow. (Monday, December 5)

Cairo (54 seats)

Cairo List 1 (10 Seats)
FJP (39%)=4 Seats

Egyptian Bloc(23.5%)=3 Seats
Al Nour (5.36%)=1seat
Al Wafd (6.23%)=1 seat

Cairo List 2 (8 Seats)
FJP(35.65%)=3
Egyptian Bloc(26.22%)=2
Al Nour(11.1%)=1
Al Wafd(7.22%)=1
Al Wasat(5.76%)=1

Cairo List 3 (Qasr al Nil)(8 Seats)
FJP(39%)=3
Egyptian Bloc(18.33%)=2
Wafd(14.67%)=1
Nour(14.52%)=1
RCA(3.45%)=1

Cairo List 4 (Helwan)(10 Seats)
FJP(40.48%)=4
Nour(19.35%)=2
Egyptian Bloc(13.14%)=1
Al Wafd(7.32%)=1
Revolution Continue(3.62%)=1
Al Wasat(3.39%)=1

Cairo Single Winner Seats.

#1 : Egyptian Bloc vs. FJP
#2 : FJP vs. Egyptian Block (Yeah!)
#3 : FJP vs. El Adl, Al Nour (wow!) or Independent.
#4: Heliopolis: Amr Hamzawy with 53% of the vote (Mabruk!) Former NDP vs. FJP (wow! Scary)
#5: FJP vs. Al Nour (Yikes!)
#6: FJP vs. Egyptian Bloc, Gamila Ismail did not make it.
#7: FJP vs. Al Nour or former NDP. (Sigh)
#8: FJP vs.FJP.
#9: Mostafa Bakry wins, Independent. Ramadan Omar wins, FJP.

Alexandria (24 Seats)

Alexandria List #1 (6 Seats)

FJP (34.41%)=2
Al Nour (29.85%)=2
Egyptian Bloc (16.02%)=1
Wafd (6.40%)=1

Alexandria List #2(10 Seats)

FJP (35.32%)=4
Al Nour (32.96%)=3
Revolution Continues (10%)=1
Egyptian Bloc (6.15%)=1
Al Wafd(5.55%)=1

Alexandria single winner Seats
working on this . . . .

Damietta (12 seats)

Damietta List
FJP
Al Nour
Al Wasat

Kafr Al Sheikh (18 Seats)

FJP (31%)
Al Nour (22%)
Al Wafd (15%)
Union
National Party (NDP)
Democratic Front
Freedom Party (NDP)
Egyptian Citizen (NDP)

Fayoum (18 Seats)
Fayoum List 1
FJP
Al Nour
Freedom Party(NDP)
Revolution Continues

Fayoum List 2
FJP(2Seats)
Al Nour (near tie) (2 Seats)
Egyptian Bloc (no seats)

Port Said (6 Seats)
Port Said List
FJP=32% (2 Seats)
Al Nour=20% (1 Seat)
Al Wafd=14%
Al Wasat=13%

Red Sea (6 Seats)
Red Sea List
FJP=35% (2 Seats)
Egyptian Bloc=17% (One Seat)
Egyptian Citizen (NDP)= 14% (One Seat)
Al Wafd=10%
Freedom Party (NDP)=8%
Al Wasat=6%
Revolution Continues=4%

Assiut (24 Seats)
Assiut List 1
FJP=44%
Al Nour=23%
Egyptian Bloc=22%
Wafd
Nasserist
Peace
Wasat

Assiut List 2
FJP > 40%
Al Nour
Egyptian Bloc

Luxor(6 seats)
Luxor List
FJP=40%
Al Nour
Egyptian Bloc
Al Wafd

Luxor Single Winner (Runoff)

1.Independent
2.FJP/NDP
3.FJP

Cairo's 6th District

2011-11-30T14:29:00.001+02:00

Paper Youm 7 is reporting that

"The Freedom and Justice Party has won 70 percent of the votes in Cairo's 6th district, according to FJP official Osama Sedky. He said the FJP was followed by the Egyptian Bloc, the Continuing Revolution list, and al-Wafd Party."

It looks like a woman has a strong chance in Cairo's 6th District. Independent candidate Gameela Ismail has made a strong showing. The Free Egyptians are also polling well.

Egypt Election Q and A

2011-11-30T11:30:00.001+02:00

Here are some good resources on the Egyptian election

Carnegie Endowment Electing a New Egypt.

Arabist Egyptian Election Page

Al Jazeera Infographic on Egyptian Elections

New York Times Revolution and Aftermath

Here is a review of the basics:

There are 27 Governorates in Egypt. Egypt has a population of 80 million. 50 million persons are eligible to vote. Expatriates in possession of an Egyptian passport can vote at their local consulate.

The People's Assembly elections will be held on November 28th-29th (Kafr El Sheikh, Port Said, Damietta, Cairo, Helwan, Alexandria) December 14, 2011, (Beni Suef, Giza, Ismailiya, Beheira, Suez, Sohag Qena, Luxor, Aswan, Sharqiya, Menoufiya) and finally January 3, 2012 (Marsa Matrouh, Minya. New Valley, North Sinai, South Sinai). Full results for the lower house will likely be announced after January.

The Shura Council elections will be held on January 29th, February 14th, and March 4th in the same sequence.

The date of the Presidential election has not yet been decided.

The election is a mixture of a closed list system (2/3), and a first past the post single winner system (1/3). Here is my explanation of that system. The Book of Lists

I have just updated my list of which parties are running women in large numbers or high positions. Please take a look. Which Egyptian parties represent women?

Furthermore, each list must contain individuals certified as either "workers" or "farmers," a holdover from the Nasserist era.

Here is my discussion of blocs. Egyptian political blocs

Predictions: I predict (Just a hunch. Just a gamble)

Muslim Brotherhood will win 30% of the seats in the People's Assembly.
El Adl will also be a big winner, taking about 15% of seats.
I expect all Copts and many Muslim liberals and leftists to vote for the Egyptian Bloc, or the Revolution Continues Bloc. Those groups should win about 15% each.
The remaining seats will be divided between Al Nour, Wasat, El Wafd, and a variety of other parties and individuals.

Tear Gas in Tahrir

2011-11-29T16:03:00.001+02:00

I have personal, eyewitness information on the tear gas situation. This post is a bit delayed, but important.

Many reports have been issued by the protesters that the tear gas used in Tahrir was much stronger than that on January 25th. There are claims that the tear gas is CS, and can irritate skin, eyes, and mucous membranes. CS gas causes skin problems, raises blood pressure, and can eventually lead to cancer, and even severe injury or death.

How's Business, Tear Gas Economy Flourishes in Tahrir Square.

Study Alleges Tear Gas Used on Protesters Potentially Lethal.

Here is what I know, first hand.

I had a guest from America, Don B. He arrived on November 17th and left on November 28th. He went with his tour guide, Waleed, who is an egyptologist and a revolutionary, to Tahrir Square. Unfortunately, they got a little too close to Mohammed Mahmoud street, on November 22d, which was a police/protest battle-zone. They got gassed at close range.

Of course, they had the typical symptoms of stinging eyes and trouble breathing. But there was an additional symptom indicating that there was something really bad in that tear gas. On the parts of his body not covered by clothing, his skin began to be covered by a bad red rash. Over the course of a few days, his skin became inflamed, and even began to ooze a little pus.

We got fairly worried and took him to a pharmacist in Luxor. We explained that he had been tear gassed. The pharmacist prescribed something called triderm which had an antibiotic in it. The skin on my friends face dried up, and eventually peeled off. We were very lucky that we found a knowledgeable pharmacist.

Pretty harrowing evidence that the tear gas used in Tahrir was much stronger than normal.

Day one of Egyptian election peaceful

2011-11-29T11:15:00.001+02:00

Egyptian woman voting. Photo credit Al Masry Al Youm.

The first day of the election has gone by smoothly.

Here are some impressionistic reactions from friends and acquaintances.

A young lady at the busstop who voted at Tagamoo (near El Rehab in New Cairo) said she waited in line for five hours. She got in line at 7 a.m., but the polls did not open until 11:30. She mentioned that men and women voted in different schools. She said by the end of the time period, people started to argue. She was in a school where only women were voting, but they started to argue. She said there was heavy security provided by the military, the police, as well as lagaan shabaaya.

One of the administrative assistants to the law department at AUC said she voted in Nasr City. She also waited in line for hours. She said there was no bathroom. She said that the polls opened late, and that people started to argue because some young people cut in line towards the end.

One of my graduate students voted in downtown, near Tahrir. She said it was very safe, and there was a lot of security provided by the military police. She said voting went quickly and easily.

The parliamentary election continues today.

~WMB

The Rest of Egypt

2011-11-27T14:09:00.001+02:00

I know it is hard to believe, but outside Tahrir, life goes on as usual. The only thing that is frustrating is the constant disruption in schedules.

I spent the last few days in Luxor and Aswan, and it is very peaceful there, with a sizeable number of European tourists. Also, where I live, in El Rehab in Cairo, it is quiet.

AUC will close tomorrow for the elections.

~WMB

No curfew but daily life disrupted

2011-11-22T14:21:00.001+02:00

It is 2:34. I have to leave because they are shutting down the university. At first I thought it was a curfew, but a colleague who is very politically connected says there is no curfew. A student tells me it is because the protest is expected to be huge and really snarl up traffic, which is already bad enough in Cairo.

I got a dramatic call from my children's daycare asking me to come right away to get them. My daughter's school, New Cairo British International School sent my daughter home early, at one o clock, as well.

Tally on the three AUC students is that one was arrested, and then released, Rahim. One was shot, he was short near the eye, but not in the eye. It was a rubber bullet, and he was expected to regain his sight. He was spotted wandering around the campus yesterday, a minor celebrity. I do not know the status of the third student.

Al Ahram (state owned) is reporting that numbers are swelling in Tahrir. It estimates that there are close to 20,000 people in the square right now. Al Masry Al Youm (independent) is reporting that the Egyptian stock exchange has halted due to the political crisis. It also reports that thousands are heading to Tahrir.

Here is who is in and who is out!

Jama'a al-Islamiya : attending
The Salafi-led Nour Party: attending
Freedom and Justice Party, (MB): Not attending

Egyptian Current Party: attending

Socialist Popular Alliance Party: attending

April 6 Youth Movement: attending

Peaceful Change Front: attending

Union of Revolutionary Youth: attending

Egyptian Social Democratic Party: attending

Okay, I need a break from all the excitement. Back in a few days. Good luck to the revolutionaries. Praying for peace. ~WMB

#Free Rahim

2011-11-22T11:30:00.001+02:00

Detained AUC student Ahmed Abdel Rahim was released last night, Ilhamdulilah. I have one of my students out in Tahrir, and I am worried about her.

I made my students do a safety tree last night. Everyone in the class had to get the cell numbers of the two people to their left and to their right. I gave my students my phone number, land line and cell, and made them write it down. I will keep a hard copy in my purse.

Remember that the internet and the cell phones went down in the Revolution. You could not call out on a landline, but you could call internally, and people could call from outside the country to check on you.

Several AUC vehicles in Tahrir were set on fire, including one in front of the Greek Campus library. The Greek campus was not seriously damaged. Some staff have been exposed to tear gas. Intruders have stolen some computer equipment, armed robbers, protesters and military police have invaded the AUC Tahrir campus. It has been closed for nearly a week.

~WMB

Tahrir peaceful and protest growing

2011-11-22T10:12:00.001+02:00

I have a friend in from town. He is going to the Egyptian Museum today. The tour guide, Waleed, went to Tahrir this morning, and says it is peaceful, and crowded. He participated in the January 25th Revolution. He said we should expect close to one million people in Tahrir by the end of the day. People are streaming in from everywhere.

Waleed and my friend were in Fayoum yesterday, and they said the people there are opposed to the military.

Just how bad is it?

2011-11-21T16:27:00.001+02:00

Nobody really knows how bad the political situation in Egypt is. The last report I heard was that 35 people had been killed in Tahrir, and over 1000 injured seriously.

The AUC campus at Tahrir is closed. There have been reports that the library was burned. Hill house, the bookstore and the science building have broken glass.

The UNDP offices downtown are closed and people are working from home.

One AUC student Ahmed Abdel Rahim, was arrested in Tahrir Square yesterday. He is being detailed at the Kasr El Aini police station. AUC is trying to get him released and keep him safe.

As many as 4000 protesters are in Tahrir. They are not all Islamists. One of my students from my essentials of public policy class is there. Thirty Seven (37) revolutionary groups have demanded the resignation of Essam Sherif's government and the transfer of power to an elected civilian government by May 2012.

Clashes continue in Tahrir Square November 21, 2011

2011-11-21T10:53:00.001+02:00

Clashes in Tahrir Square weekend of November 20th. Photo Credit Amr Abdalla.

If you are reading this blog, I assume you know that there have been clashes in Tahrir since Friday. The AUC campus at Tahrir is closed, and one AUC student is being held in police custody.

Short Version. The elections are coming up. They are scheduled on November 28th. On Friday the 18th, a large protest against the document regarding supra-constitutional principles was scheduled by Islamists. The protesters decided to camp out overnight. Riot police streamed into the square trying to break up the sit in. Police beat and arrested activists. More protesters poured into the square, supporting those who had been attacked. Police used tear gas and fired bullets. Protesters currently control Tahrir. The protesters are demanding the ouster of Field Marshal Tantawi.

Here is Al Masry Al Youm's (an independent paper) blow by blow. Second death reported in Alexandria, clashes continue in Cairo.

Here is Al Ahram's version. Al Ahram is owned by the government. Revolutionaries Recapture Tahrir in a Replay of January Uprising.

I was at Khan al Khallili yesterday, and we saw many many tanks drive by with armed soldiers on the way to Tahrir.

What seats are Egyptian political blocs running for?

2011-11-17T10:37:00.001+02:00

There are 46 electoral districts for party based lists in Egypt. There are 83 districts covered by the individual single-winner electoral system.

There are four main electoral blocs, which span the political spectrum. Although Egypt does have a left, I believe it is inaccurate, in my view, to say it has a "right," as that concept is understood in Europe. It has a secular side and a more fundamentalist religious side.

Left/Liberal

Egyptian Bloc: Free Egyptians (Free Enterprise), Egyptian Social Democratic Party, Tagmmu Party (old school leftist)
The Revolution Continues: Socialist Popular Alliance Party, Egyptian Socialist Party, Egypt Freedom (Amr Hamzawy), Equality and Development, Egyptian Current, Revolution Youth Coalition

Right/Religious

Democratic Alliance: (12 parties) Muslim Brotherhood, Ghad Party, Al-Karama (Nasserist)
Islamist Alliance: Nour Party (Salafis), Asala, the Salafist Current, the Construction and Development Party (Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya)

What seats are the blocs running for?

Given that there are 46 party list districts, if a party is running in more districts than this, it means they are running individual candidates.

The Egyptian Bloc will run 233 candidates in unified electoral lists, to contest seats in 64 electoral districts. 10 % Tagammu, 40% SDP, 50 % Free Egyptians.

The Revolution Continues will field 300 candidates in 34 electoral districts. 250 candidates will run on unified electoral lists, and 34 for the people's assembly will run on independent seats, and 26 for the Shura Council will run independently.

The Democratic Alliance (Islamists) will field 498 candidates and is competing in all electoral districts around the country.The Democratic Alliance will be running on unified lists in all electoral districts across the countries. Seats will be divided based on the relative political weight of each party, and how much it contributes to the success of the overall list. FJP candidates make up 70 percents of the slots on the unified lists for the democratic alliance. FJP candidates make up 90 percent of the candidates for the independent seats.

The Wafd Party has fielded 332 list-based candidates in 46 electoral constituencies, and 96 individual candidates in 83 constituencies for the upcoming elections. Four former members of the NDP were nominated by the Wafd in the Red Sea, Qena, Minya and Sharqiya.

Wasat (Moderate Islamist/Brotherhood Offshoot) will field 402 candidates. 332 will be on party lists. 70 will run as independents.

Word on the street

2011-11-17T10:27:00.001+02:00

Well, regarding the Egyptian elections, gossip and innuendo is rife. Here is what I am hearing. This is TOTALLY unscientific, but very interesting, nonetheless.

My daughter's daycare teacher thinks that it is a mistake to push the military out. She says that the military is the last institution standing in Egypt, and that it is a mistake to try to get rid of them. She believes there are outside forces encouraging the youth to battle the military. Perhaps these outside forces are from Qatar or Saudi Arabia in her view.

My research assistant is very brilliant and hardworking. Her family is going to vote Muslim Brotherhood (Freedom and Justice Party) because they are organized, and they do a lot of charity.

An extremely educated and experienced political activist and journalist warned that she is very worried about the potential for violence during the election.

AUC has decided to shut down the entire university for the first round of elections on November 28th for security reasons.

~WMB

Which Egyptian parties represent women and Copts and young people?

2011-11-15T09:46:00.001+02:00

Post updated on December 7, 2011

The purpose of this post is to compile research on which Egyptian parties represent women and Copts and young people.

Women in Egypt have historically been politically marginalized. Interviews conducted with two prominent Egyptian women, one journalist, one UN staff, indicated their concern that women would take between 1% and 3% of seats in People's Assembly and the Shura in this first election. According to UN Women, "In the first stage,2366 candidates are competing over the individual seats including149 women and 2217 men, which mean that women represent(6.2%) only of the total number of candidates running on the 56 individual seats for the 9 governorates."

The old parliament was largely powerless. It did have a quota for women. The new electoral system does not have a quota. However, the new electoral law says that each proportional list must have at least one woman. (Yasmine Fathi, "Will women make it into Egypt's upcoming Parliament?," Ahram Online, October 20, 2011.) Updated November 22, 2011.

Please remember that the lower you are on a list, the less likely you are to get elected. Accordingly, it is fair to say that parties which place women high on a list, particularly in slots 1-3, are really interested in getting them elected. Conversely, if the women are at the very bottom of the list, the party may be uninterested in getting them elected.

This just in. We (Myself and Heba Galal, my amazing student) have gone through the facebook pages of MB, El Adl and Al Nour, and seen where they have women on their lists. I have highlighted lists where women are in the top half, and therefore have a great chance of winning. This is what we have found. Updated November 30th, 2011. 12:23 a.m.

El Adl seems to have a fairly high number of women on their lists, in my opinion. They are running 24 women out of 13 lists. As many as 8 women are near the top of the lists. El Adl also has some Christians.
The Muslim Brotherhood seems to have slightly more than the bare minimum of women on their lists. They are running 38 women out of 37 lists analyzed. Two women are near top of the lists. (9 lists still need to be analyzed.)
It is rumored that some of the women on Al Nour's list are fakes, and are just the mothers or the sisters of party members, to meet the legal requirement.
The Egyptian Bloc: On 42 lists, they have 43 women. 9 women are at the top of their lists.The Bloc also has many Christians.

Freedom and Justice Party/Muslim Brotherhood. www.facebook.com/FJParty.Official?sk=app_10442206389
The MB is incredibly organized, and has almost all of their candidates listed on their facebook page. Almost all of their list have at least one woman. In general, the women are in the bottom half or bottom third of the lists. However, occasionally, a woman is in a high position.

List (People's Assembly) (Two women at top of Lists)

1.Cairo. The initial list. One woman, Abeer Hussein Osman. Rank, 9 out of 10 candidates.
2. Cairo. The second list. One woman, Manal Mohammed Abu Hassan, Rank 5 out of 8 candidates.
3. Cairo. The third list. One woman, Nagva Abdel Mawla, Rank 6 out of 8 candidates.
4. Cairo. The fourth list. One woman, Omaima full Abdul Hai, Rank 5 out of 10 candidates.
5. Giza. The initial list. One woman, Samah Said Ahmed Abdel Khalek, Rank 9 out of 10 candidates.
6. Giza, the second list. One woman, Azza Mohamed Ibrahim Elgref, Rank 4 out of 10 candidates.
7. Alexandria. The initial list. One woman, Bushra Mohamed Alsmona, Rank 3 out of 6 candidates.
8. Alexandria. The second list. One woman, Khadija Mohamed Fahmy, Rank 9 out of 10 candidates.
9. Beheira. The initial list. One woman, Manal Ismail, Rank 5 out of 12.
10. Beheir. The second list. One woman, Hafsa Atef Schumann, Rank 7 out of 8.
11. Dakhalia, the initial list. One woman, Siham Abdel-Latif Jamal, Rank 2 out of 8.
12. Dakhalia, the second list. One woman, Noha Mohram Karam Ibrahim Jaballah, Rank 7 out of 8.
13. Dakhalia, the third list. One woman, Professor Faiza Ahmed, Rank 7 out of 8.
14. Gharbia, the initial list. One woman, Abeer Adel Abbas El Menshawi, Rank 6 out of 10.
15. Gharbia, the second list. One woman, Hanan Hamdi Hassan Samak, Rank 7 out of 10.
16. Assiut, the initial list. One woman, Fatima Abdul Rahim Abdul Rahman, Rank 7 out of 8.
17. Assiut, the second list. One woman, Entsar Mahmoud Sayed ElSherif, Rank 7 out of 8.
18. Ismailia, One woman, Zeinab Ali Mustafa, Rank 3 out of 4.
19. Suez, One woman, Azza Ismail Mohammed, Rank 3 out of 4.
20. Sharqia, the initial list, One woman, Wegaa Hisham Kabeel, rank 10 out of 10.
21. Sharqia, the second list, one woman, Hana El Said Saleh Hassanin, rank 10 out of 10.
22. Fayoum, the initial list, one woman, Nadia Tawfiq Suleiman Khalil, rank 8 out of 8.
23. Fayoum, the second list, one woman, Ahalam Eid Barakat, rank 4 out of 4.
24. Qalubiya, the initial list, one woman, Huda Abdullah Abul Qadr, rank 4 out of 4.
25. Qalubiya, the second list, one woman, Hoda Abdel-Rahman Mohammed Anwar, Rank 3 out of 8.
26. Menoufia, one woman, Nabila Ali Moussa Motweh, rank 8 out of 8.
27. New Valley, one woman, Mervat Said Abdo, Rank 4 out of 4.
28. Beni Suef, one woman, Fatima Mahmoud Marzouk, Rank 4 out of 8.
29. Port Said, one woman, Sahar Mohamed Khudairi, rank 3 out of 4.
30. South Sinai, one woman, Amira Abdel Hamid Taha, rank 4 out of 4.
31. Damietta, two women, Fakry Adham Abdel Razak, Etmaad Mohamed Zagloul, rank 3 and 5 out of 8.
32. Sohag, the initial list, one woman, Ebtahag Ahmed Hassanein, rank 9 out of 12.
33. Sohag, the second list, one woman, Salwa Mohammed Abdul Karim, rank 8 of 8.
34. North Sinai, one woman, Inas Mustafa Hamdan, rank 4 of 4.
35. Qena, one woman, Suhair Badri, rank 4 of 4.
36.Kafr el sheikh, initial list, one woman, Huda Safan, rank 8 of 8.
37. Kafr el shikh, initial list, one woman, Fahima Mansour, rank 4 of 4.

Missing Data for MB on 9 districts for electoral party lists.

Al Nour Party/Salafis, Al Nour Party Facebook Page

No women in top half of lists analyzed.

List (people's assembly)
East of Cairo, one woman, 8 out of 8.
South of Cairo, no women indicated.
West of Cairo, one woman, 7 of 8.
Aswan, one woman, 4 of 4.
Luxor, one woman, 4 of 4.
Qena, one woman, 4 of 4.
Qena list 2, one woman, 8 of 8.
Sohag, two women, 10 and 12 of 12.
Sohag, list 2, one woman, 8 of 8.
Assiut list 1, one woman, 8 of 8.
Assiut list 2, one woman, 8 of 8.
Minya list 1, one woman, 8 of 8.
Minya list 2, one woman, 8 of 8.
Beni Suef, one woman, 7 of 8.
Fayoum, one woman, 8 of 8.
New Valley, one woman, 4 of 4.
Ismailia, (no women?)
Port Said, one woman, 4 of 4.
Suex, one woman, 4 of 4.
Damietta, one woman, 8 of 8.
Dakhalia, list 1, one woman, 8 of 8.
Dakhalia, list 2, one woman 8 of 8
Dakhalia list 3, one woman 8 of 8.
Alexandria, list 1, one woman, 6 of 6.
Alexandria list 2, one woman, 10 of 10.
Beheiria, one woman, 12 of 12.

Individuals
Nasr City, one woman
South area of Egypt, no women
Zeinab, no women
Maadi, no women

El Adl party, El Adl Webpage

Lists (8 women at top of lists)

1. Central Cairo List, two women, one Christian ranks 3,4,5, out of 8.
2. South Cairo List, one woman, rank 5 of 10.
3. East Cairo List, one woman, one Christian, rank 4 and 7 of 10.
4. Ghamra, one woman, 2 out of 8.
5. East Alexandria, one woman, 3 out of 6.
6. Alexandria, Shura Council, one woman, 4 out of 4.
7. Minya Governorate, one woman 2 out of 8.
8. East Alexandria, one woman 3 out of 6.
9. Matrouh, one woman, 4 out of 4.
10. Gharbia, four singles, all men.
11. Gharbia, Mahalla, two women, 5 and 6 out of 10.
12. Gharbia, Tanta, one woman, 10 out of 10.
13. Qena, North, one woman, 3 out of 3.
14. Qena, South, one woman, one out of 8.
15. Red Sea, one woman, 3 out of 4.
16. Beni Suef, one woman, 4 out of 8.
17. Sohag, one woman 4 out of 8.
18. Sharqia, Abu Kabir, one woman, 9 out of 9.
19. Sharqia, Zagazig, one woman, 3 out of 10.
20. Damietta, one woman, 7 out of 10.
21. Baheria, Damanhur (not sure about this location) one Christian, one woman, 6 and 11 out of 12. Suez, one woman, 4 out of 4.
13. Fayoum, one woman, 2 out of 4.

List Shura Council (no women in top half of lists)

Alexandria, one woman, 4 out of 4.
Matrough, one woman, 3 out of 4.
Gharbia, Mahalla, one woman, 4 out of 4.
Beni Suef, one woman, 3 out of 4.
Sharqia, one woman, 3 out of 4.

Individuals (3 women)

Department of Osim, a man, People's Assembly
South Giza, a man, Shura Council

North Giza, a woman, Shura Council.

Minya Governorate, Four candidates, no women, three people's assembly, one Shura council.
Dakhalia Governorate, two candidates, no women, two People's Assembly
East Alexandria, two men, people's assembly
Alexandria, one man, Shura Council.
Gharbia, Mahalla, one man.
Minya, three men for people's assembly.
Minya, one man, Shura council.
Sharqia, two men, people's assembly
Qalubiya, one woman, Shura Council.
Damietta, one man, People's assembly.
Beheria, four men, no women, people's assembly.
Ismailia, one woman, People's assembly. One man, Shura council.

The Egyptian Bloc ("Kotla": Free Egyptians, SDP and Tagamoo)
Egyptian Social Democratic Party
The Free Egyptians Party

We examined both the SDP versions of the lists and the Free Egyptian version. They are close but not identical. The final lists have to be the same, since they are running as a bloc. Each party can choose to run whomever they want as individuals.

Lists (9 women at top of lists)

1. East Cairo. Two Christians, one woman. Rank 3 (C); 6(W);7(C) out of 7.
2. Downtown Cairo. One woman, one Christian. Rank 5 (W); 6(C) out of 9.
3. Cairo El Sahel. Three Christians, one woman. Rank 1(C); 4(C); 8(W); 9(C) out of 10.
4. South Cairo. One woman, one Christian. Rank 5(W); 8(C) out of 9.
5. Giza First List. Out of 10. Two Christians, One woman. Ranks 5(C); 6(C); 10(W).
6. Giza Second List. Out of 10. One Christian, one woman. Ranks 5(C) and 7(W).
7. Qaliubiya First List. Out of 4. One woman. Rank 3.
8. Qaliubiya . Second List. Out of 8. One Christian, one woman. Rank 2(C) and 5(W).

9. Alexandria, First List. Out of 6. One woman, rank 3.

10. Alexandria, Second List. Out of 10. One Christian, one woman. Rand 8(C) and 9(W).
11. Port Said First List. Out of Four. No women.(Mistake?)
12. Ismailia. Out of 4. One woman. Rank 2.
13. Suez. Out of 4. One Christian, one woman, Rank 1(C) and 3(W).
14. Sharqia. First List. Out of 10. One woman, two Christians. Rank 3(W) ; 6(C) and 10(C).
15. Sharqia. Second List. Out of 10. Two women, one Christian. Rank 3(C); 6(W) and 10(W)
16. Dakhalia. First List. Out of 8. one woman, rank 9.
17. Dakhalia Second List. Out of 8. One Christian, one woman, rank 8(C) and 9(W).
18. Dakhalia Third List. Out of 8. one woman. Rank 4.

19. Damietta. Out of 8. one woman. Rank 4.

20. Kafr El Sheikh. First List. Out of 9. One woman. Rank 7.
21. Kafr El Sheikh. Second List. Out of 4. One woman. Rank 4.
22. Gharbia. First List. Out of 10. One Christian, one woman. Rank 3(C) and 5(W)
23. Gharbia. Second List. Out of 10. One woman. Rank 10.
24. Menoufia. One Christian, two women. Out of 8. Ranks 3(C); 7(W) and 9(W)
25. Beheira. First List. Out of 10. One Christian. One woman. Ranks 1(C) and 9(W).
26. Beheira. Second List. Out of 8. One woman, one Christian. Ranks 2(W) and 3(C).
27. Fayoum. First List. Out of 10. One woman. Rank 9.
28. Fayoum. Second List. Out of 5. One woman, one Christian. Ranks 4(W) and 5(C).
29. Beni Suef. Out of 4. One woman. Rank 2.
30. Manyia. First List. Out of 8. Two Christians. Ranks 3 and 5.(mistake)
31. Manyia. Second List. Out of 8. One Christian woman. Rank 8.
32. Assiut. First List. Out of 9. One Christian, one woman. Rank 2(C) and Rank 7(W).
33. Assiut. Second List. Out of 9. Two women. Ranks 2 and 6.
34. Sohag. First List. Out of 10. One woman. Rank 8.
35. Qena. Out of 8. One woman, Rank 6.
36. Aswan. Out of 4. One woman. Rank 3.
37. Luxor. Out of 4. One Christian, one woman. Ranks, 3(C) and 4(W).
38. Marsa Matrouh. Out of 4. One woman, rank 4.
39. New Valley, out of 4. One woman, rank 3.
40. Red Sea Governorate, out of 4. One woman, rank 3.
41. North Sinai Governorate, Out of 4. two women, ranks 3 and 4.
42. South Sinai Governorate, out of 4. one woman, rank 3.

Completed November 30th, 2011. Need to recheck for Christian names. Need to see if there are four lists that I missed.

Individuals (People's Assembly) (three women)

Free Egyptians
1st District Cairo. two men, one of them is Christian.
2d District Cairo. A man.
3rd District Cairo. A man.
4th District Cairo. Two men.
5th District Cairo. one man. One Christian woman.
6th District Cairo. A man.
7th District Cairo. Two men.
8th District Cairo. Two men.
9th District Cairo. One Christian woman. One man.

First district Giza. Three men.

Second district Giza. One man.

Third district Giza. One man.

Fifth District Giza, two men.

First District Alexandria two men.

Second district Alexandria, two men.

Third district Alexandria, two men.

Fourth district Alexandira, two Christian men.

First District Fayoum, one man.

First district Port Said, one man.

First district Ismailia, two men.

First district Suez, three men.

First district Sharqia, two men.

Fifth district Sharqia, two men.

First district Dakhalia, two men.

Second district Dakhalia, one man.

Third district Dakhalia, one man.

Fourth district Dakhalia, one woman.

Fifth district Dakhalia, two men, one is Christian.

Sixth district Dakhalia, one man.
First District Damietta, two men.
Second district Damietta, two men.
First district Kafr El Sheikh, one man
First district South Sinai, two men
Marsa Matrouh, two men, one is Christian.
Aswan, two men, one is Christian.
Qena (three districts) five men.
Sohag (four districts) six men.
Second district Assiut, one man.
First district Minya, two men.
Third district Minya, one Christian man.
Second district Beni Suef, one man.
Third district Beni Suef, one Christian man.
First district Beheira, two men, one is Christian.
Second district Beheira, three men.
Third district Behira, two men
Fourth district Beheira, one man
Fifth district Beheira, one man
First district Menoufia, three men.
Second district Menoufia, three men.
Third district Menoufia, one man.
Fourth district Menoufia, one man.
First district Gharbia, three men.
Third district Gharbia, one man.
Fourth district Gharbia, one man.

Individuals (Sura Council)
Free Egyptians
Cairo, list one man
Luxor, individual one man.

The Revolution Continues Alliance

Lists (10 women out of 10 lists)

1. Cairo 1st District. Two women, one Christian. Rank 3 (W); 4(W);6(C) out of 10.
2. Cairo 2d District. One woman, one Christian. Rank 3 (C); 5(W) out of 8.

3. Cairo Third District. One woman. Rank 1(W); out of 8.
4. Cairo 4th District. Two women. Rank 6(W); 10(W) out of 10.
5. Alexandria, First List. Two women, Ranks 2 and 3.
6. Alexandria, Second List. Out of 10. Cannot see a female name (?)

7. Damietta. Cannot see a female name. (?)

8. Kafr El Sheikh. Second List. one woman. 3 out of 3.
9. Red Sea. One woman. 3 out of 3.
10. Assiut. First List. Two women, one Christian. Ranks 4(W); 5(W) and 6(C).

Individuals

No women.

This section was completed on December 7, 2011.

Other Parties

The RCA has 100 candidates under 40. The RCA CLAIMS has two women at the top of its lists, including Mervat Said Hanafi in Helwan. This assertion was not confirmed in my review of the lists. There are 45 women in the 32 lists of the Revolution continues, two women at the top of two lists and 4 women come second in the lists.

The SDP and Socialist Coalition also have platforms strongly supportive of women and religious freedom.

The Free Egyptians and the SDP ("Kotla") have sizable Copt participation. That is to be expected as they are secular parties.

Wafd Party President al-Sayed al-Badawy says there are 37 Coptic candidates on the lists, and 87 female candidates on the lists. (As of October 29, 2011. The Wafd party will field at least two women in first place, including Margaret Azer in Nasry City, and Magda El Nawashi in Ismalia. (Fathi, "Women")

Heba Fahmy of the Daily News says the the Democratic Alliance List (Islamists) includes 76 women and 2 Copts. About half of the female candidates are on the top of the list. (Our research indicates that this claim was NOT TRUE).

In a press conference, the Salafist Nour party said that fielding women candidates for parliament is "evil," and that the party will only field female candidates because they are forced to by law. (Fathi, "Women")

~WMB

Last updated December 2, 2011. 6:35 p.m. Cairo time.

Political Parties, Lists and things it would be nice to know about the Upcoming Egyptian Parliamentary Elections

2011-11-13T14:49:00.002+02:00

Photo Credit Al Ahram online. Popular Socialist Alliance Street Party.

Dear readers

A reader has made the excellent request that I try to assemble information about all parties and lists in one page. This page will be a running assessment of the state of political life in Egypt as the parliamentary elections approach. I will try to update it as frequently as possible. This information may be available in one place at the Higher Elections Commission. However, it is all in Arabic. So I am creating a database from the Egyptian press. I am reading the English press, and my students the Arabic Press.

When will the elections be held?

Parliamentary elections for the people's assembly are scheduled to start on November 28th, 2011. Following rounds of elections will be held on December 5th, and December 14th.

My students and I think that this system of having some governorates vote first, and then others follow is very problematic. Governorates in later elections will observe the results of the Cairo vote, and then change their votes accordingly. The outcomes of the earlier votes will affect the outcomes of the later votes.

The Shura Council Poll will being on January 29th, and end on March 11, 2012.

How many seats are up for grabs?

There are 498 seats in the People's Assembly which will be decided by election. Another 10 seats will be appointed, making the total number of seats in the People's Assembly 508.

Shura Council will have 180 elected seats, and 90 presidentially appointed seats, for a total of 270 seats in the upper house.One question is who will appoint the 90 seats in the absence of a President in Egypt.

How do the election stages work?

The first stage of elections will be held between November 28th and the 5th of December. It includes Egypt's most popular governerates, Cairo and Alexandria, as well as Fayoum, Port Said, Damietta, Kafr Al-Sheikh, Assiut, Luxor and the Red Sea.

How many political parties are there in Egypt?

As many as 55 political parties, (as of November 14, 2011) most of which were formed after the January 25th Revolution, will compete in the parliamentary elections.

How many electoral districts are there in Egypt?

There are 46 electoral districts covered by the party list system, and 83 districts covered by the individual candidacy system. Source: Gamal Assam El Din, "Egypt's Opposition Slams Proposed Electoral Changes," Ahram Online, September 26, 2011.

How many candidates have registered?

Over 15,000 candidates have registered (As of October 29, 2011). Over 8600 have registered as independents. 6600 have registered for the People's Assembly. More than 2000 have registered for the Shura Council.

What are the main Alliances?

There are four main electoral blocs, which span the political spectrum. Although Egypt does have a left, I believe it is inaccurate, in my view, to say it has a "right," as that concept is understood in Europe. It has a secular side and a more fundamentalist religious side.

Left/Liberal

Egyptian Bloc: Free Egyptians (Free Enterprise), Egyptian Social Democratic Party, Tagmmu Party (old school leftist)
The Revolution Continues: Socialist Popular Alliance Party, Egyptian Socialist Party, Egypt Freedom (Amr Hamzawy), Equality and Development, Egyptian Current, Revolution Youth Coalition

Right/Religious

Democratic Alliance: (12 parties) Muslim Brotherhood, Ghad Party, Al-Karama (Nasserist)
Islamist Alliance: Nour Party (Salafis), Asala, the Salafist Current, the Construction and Development Party (Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya)

What are some of the other parties in Egypt?

Overview of Political Parties from The Arabist.

Map of Egypt's Political Parties

Overview of Political Parties from the Carnegie Endowment.This is by Marina Ottaway, a respected academic with a lot of expertise on both Africa and the Middle East.

The Emerging Political Spectrum in Egypt

Here is information about parties I have gleaned from Newspapers.

Unity Party (Hossam Badrawy/NDP)
Wafd (liberal/NDP)

Egyptian Communist Party (not running/boycotting)
Egypt Above All Coalition (Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi)
El Adl (liberal/free enterprise)
Democratic Front Party (liberal)
Horreya Party (NDP cover)
Egyptian Citizen Party (NDP Cover)
National Egypt Party (NDP Cover) (60 former NDP members)

Note: The High Administrative Court in Mansoura, Dakahlia governorate, has banned all members of the NDP from running for parliament. The General Electoral Committee in the governorate should reject the nomination papers of any candidate who was a member of NDP. It is not clear if the ruling will apply only in Dakhalia or across Egypt. According to Reuters, however, on November 15, 2011, Judge Magdy E-Agaty of the Higher Administrative Court has overturned the verdict. According to the Daily News Egypt, former NDP members have set up at least 6 parties.

Will Expatriates be Allowed to Vote?

Maybe. Prime Minister Essam Sharaf held a meeting this weekend (November 10, 2011) with several cabinet members to discuss whether expatriates can vote. They may be allowed to vote in Egyptian embassies abroad.

Who Can Monitor Elections?

Only Egyptians can monitor elections. International election monitors will not be allowed. The Egyptian Council for Human Rights has received 7168 requests from NGOs to monitor elections.

What Kind of Electoral System will be Used?

The elections will combine a list system as well as a single winner system. One third of the seats will be based on a single winner system. Two thirds of the seats in the People's Assembly will be elected based on the closed list system. For more on the list system, read here. The Book of Lists.

The number of candidates on each party list differs. Voters will elect a fixed number of party based candidates depending on the voting district.

North Cairo will elect 10 party based deputies. Nasr City will elect eight. Cairo's four districts will return 36 MPs from the party list system.

The city is divided into nine districts which will produce 18 MPs from the single winner system.

When Did Parties Gain Recognition?
The Nour Party (Salafis) was founded in the coastal city of Alexandria. It won official recognition on June 12, 2011. The Islamist coalition could win as many as 30 percent of parliament's seats.

Okay, I will update this as time allows. ~WMB

Updated November 14, 2011 4:00 p.m.
Updated November 15, 2011 10:00 a.m.; 4:35 p.m.
Updated November 16, 2011 11;04 a.m.

Sources
Al Masry Al Youm
Ahram Online
Al Ahram Weekly
Al Jazeera
New York Times
Washington Post
Interviews
AUC Today
Daily News Egypt
Carnegie Endowment

Concern and Confrontation about Constitutional Principles

2011-11-10T15:48:00.002+02:00

Many different kinds of Egyptian political groups are worried about the so called "constitutional principles document." The document was proposed by Deputy Prime Minister Ali al-Selmy around the first of November, 2011.

The document creates a constitutional drafting committee comprised of 100 members, of whom 80 are outside Parliament, and 20 are from parties inside parliament, with a maximum of five members for each party. The SCAF, presumably, will select the 80 members outside parliament.

This document grants the SCAF the sole right to discuss the military's budget. The SCAF could also review all matters related to the military, and approve legislation related to the military. These items do not sound very democratic. A previous post discusses this. Governance, Accountability and Stakeholders The head of the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights, Hafez Abu Seada, walked out of the meeting on the document, which he says eviscerates parliament.

That being said, the document states that Egypt is a democratic civil state, that Islam is the official religion, and Sharia the source of legislation. It gives the right to non-Muslims to follow their own creeds.

The human rights groups are not the only ones who do not like the document. The Islamists believe that it is an attempt to weaken their influence, and have called for a million-man march against the document on Friday, November 18th. The Islamists dislike the reference to Non-Muslim creeds. They say there is a US project behind the document.

Originally, secularists wanted a supra-constitutional document to ensure a secular nation, but the SCAF has cleverly subverted this ploy, turning it into a device to ensure the role of the military. Mohamed ElBaradei calls the document "distorted" and has expressed concerns regarding the power it gives the military. According to Al Masry Al Youm Mohamed Hamed, of the Free Egyptians party is more comfortable with the strong military role, than with a religious Islamist state.

The Freedom and Justice newspaper notes its strong opposition to the document. Some papers report that the Salafis and the Muslim Brotherhood are coordinating candidate nominations ahead of the parliamentary elections, however the Freedom and Justice party has denied this.

Civil society organizations have until November 19, 2011 to apply for permits to monitor the elections. The extension came from a request by the National Council for Human Rights.

Sources:
"Officials Extend Deadline for Election Monitor Applications," November 9, 2011, Al Masry Al Youm
"Nour party coordinates election strategy with Muslim Brotherhood," November 9, 2011, Al Masry Al Youm
"Campaign tensions escalate," November 10, 2011, Al Masry Al Youm
"Islamists plan 18 November protests against super constitutional principles," November 7, 2011, Al Masry Al Youm.
Noha El-Hennawy, "Supra-constitutional debate heats up again," November 3, 2011 Al Masry Al Youm
"Constitutional principles document gives military special status," November 1, 2011, Al Masry Al Youm

Cairo, I missed you

2011-11-10T12:36:00.001+02:00

I went to Taormina, Italy, for Eid al Adha. It was spectacularly beautiful. The food was good, and the wine was plentiful. The architecture was amazing. Somehow, though, I found myself longing for my family, and for dry, windy Cairo. Italy was stunningly beautiful, but also not as lively as Egypt. I missed the falafel. I missed the lemon. I missed the hectic hustle and bustle. It has been a difficult year, but Cairo has its charms.

The book of lists: unraveling the mystery of Egypt's emerging electoral system

2011-11-02T15:20:00.000+02:00

Dear readers

I am, by training, an expert in public policy. I like to think of myself as a comparative political scientist. Upon this basis, I will attempt to unravel the mysteries of Egypt's emerging electoral systems for you.

The most important idea, in my opinion, is that different forms of electoral systems have different outcomes for emerging democracies. (Barkan, Densham, Rushton, 2006) In general, countries tend to choose between "first past the post systems" (plurality) and proportional representation systems. The United States has a first past the post system. Such systems make it hard for third parties to run effectively. (Norris, 1997) Mixed systems, such as those adopted by Ecuador, Hungary, Russia and Taiwan aim to combine the best of proportional and majoritarian systems. (Norris, 1997)

Eastern Europe and Southern Africa engaged in discussion regarding the likely impacts and tradeoffs of alternative electoral systems before they chose a system. Unfortunately, to my knowledge, Egypt's leadership has not engaged in such a discussion. Rather, the decisions have been made in closed consultations between the Egyptian military and any political participants which the SCAF has chosen to converse with.

Here is a very quick summary of the systems available based on Norris. For more detail, please look up the articles below. Plurality systems are used for election in the UK, Canada, India, and the US. Plurality systems aim to create a majority. This system penalizes minor parties. It is winner take all and the focus is on effective governance, not representation of minority views. Candidates need a simple plurality to be elected.

Party list systems are used in South Africa, Europe, and Brazil, to name a few countries. "Proportional systems focus on the inclusion of minority voices." (Norris, 1997: 303) Open party lists (Norway, Finland, Italy) mean that voters can express preferences for particular candidates within the list. Closed party lists mean that voters can only select the party (Israel, Portugal, Spain, Germany). The ranking of the candidates is determined by the political party. Where you are located on the list, determines your chances of getting elected. The additional member system used in Germany combines single-member, and party list constituencies.

Carles Boix's work is relevant to the Egyptian case. He argues that any current government shapes the electoral rules to its advantage. (Boix, 1999) He observes that in an era of limited suffrage, plurality rule was used broadly in Europe. After the turn of the century, most European countries embraced proportional representation. It is my assessment that Egypt, according to Boix's typology, is currently operating under conditions of very high uncertainty regarding the structure of the electoral arena. Under such conditions, Boix predicts that the ruling elite will select a system most likely to minimize risks. This, he states is a mixed or pure PR system. Interesting, because the SCAF has in fact selected a mixed PR system.

Boix notes that if parties are collections of local notables, then there may be an incentive to embrace single-member districts. These structures, he argues, strengthen local ties and patronage politics. This is in fact what is occurring in Egypt, with the selection of the one third single member independent districts. Under Mubarak, all candidates ran as individuals in a first past the post system. The goal of that system was to ensure solid majorities for the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).

Based on the SCAF's most recent ruling, two thirds of constituencies will be allocated according to a closed proportional list-based system, and one third according to the single-winner (first past the post) system. Further, the SCAF has reduced the number of seats in the People's Assembly from 508 to 498.

As I mentioned in a previous post, having one third of seats be elected through a single-winner system makes electoral districts bigger. If 1/3 of the candidates are under a single-winner system, then the 80 million people of Egypt will elect 166 people as individual candidates. That means that the electoral districts will be divided among 166 candidates. The electoral districts will be larger, which will favor established, wealthy, well-known candidates, (NDP and MB) and disadvantage candidates from new parties.

Add to this a special Egyptian twist. There is a workers and farmers requirement. A certain percentage of people in parliament must be "workers" or "farmers." This sounds good in theory, but in practice, it is prone to corruption. To be named a "worker" or a "farmer" you have to get a certificate which acknowledges you as such from the Egyptian government. This is essentially a back door way of favoring local notables, people like the sherif, or omda, or people from wealthy families.

No system is perfect. As noted above, a first past the post system generally penalizes small parties. However, PR also has its disadvantages. For example, South Africa chose PR to accommodate parties representing racial minorities. (Barkan et. al, 2006) PR systems enhance the power of party leaders at the expense of back benchers and the rank and file. It may reduce opportunities for face to face dialogue and linkages between legislators and citizens, thereby potentially reducing accountability. In other words, citizens residing in a given area are unable to hold a specific MP accountable to their community.

Finally, none of these systems will necessarily protect the rights of women. A closed PR system may help get women elected, depending on where the parties place women on the lists. If they are at the bottom of the list, for example, they will not get elected. For this reason, some countries such as Uganda and Rwanda, have put in place requirements that a certain percentage of seats in parliament be reserved for women. A future essay will discuss the pros and cons of each electoral system.

Sources:
Ames, B. (1995) Electoral Strategy under Open-List Proportional Representation," American Journal of Political Science, 39 (2): 406-433.

Barkan, J.D. (2006) "Designing Better Electoral Systems for Emerging Democracies," American Journal of Political Science, 50 (4): 926-939.
Blais, A., Dobrzynska, A. and Indridason, I. (2005), "To Adopt or Not to Adopt Proportional Representation: The Politics of Institutional Choice.", 35(1): 182-190.
Boix, C. (1999) "Setting the Rules of the Game; The Choice of Electoral Systems in Advanced Democracies," The American Political Science Review, 93 (3): 609-624.
Fick, G. (1999), "The Gender-Sensitive Checklist for Free and Fair Elections," Agenda, (40): 66-74.
Norris, P. (1997) Choosing Electoral Systems: Proportional, Majoritarian and Mixed Systems. International Political Science Review, 18 (3): 297-312.

Discrimination, Censorship and Torture

2011-10-30T13:14:00.001+02:00

Activist blogger Alaa Abd El-Fattah (Photo: Masry25.blogspot.com)

We are all Essam Atta today.

Essam Atta, 24, has apparently been tortured to death at Cairo's Tora prison. He was a victim of flooding his body with water through his mouth and anus. His family received calls from other inmates about the torture. Atta was being punished for smuggling a mobile phone SIM card into his cell. He had been tried by a military court on February 25th in relation to illegally occupying an apartment, and sentenced to two years. His family says he was simply nearby a scuffle at the time of his arrest.

Egyptian Prison Guards Accused of Torture Death
Latest alleged torture death in Egypt prompts public outcry against SCAF

It is not an easy time to be a journalist or a blogger in Egypt. In my view, the SCAF seems to have a consistent, and purposeful policy of harassing, intimidating, and arresting journalists and bloggers who criticize their regime.

Activists Alaa Seif Abd El-Fattah and Bahaa Saber were questioned at the offices of the military prosecution this morning, Sunday on charges of instigating the Maspero clashes. Abd El-Fattah runs the political blog Manalaa. He is one of Egypt's most famous bloggers. Human rights activist Mona Seif says that military prosecutors claim to possess video footage proving that Seif and Saber (rather implausibly) had incited protesters to commit violent attacks against army personnel during the Maspero clashes.

Here is a good post by fellow blogger Abdu Rahman that links the Maspero clashes with the deaths of Atta and the imprisonment of Alaa and Bahaa.

Pictures of the Dead Continue to Haunt Us

According to Al Ahram and Al Masry, around 12,000 civilians have been tried before military courts since February 11, 2011.

The military prosecutor also summoned a journalist, Mahmoud Al-Daba, who writes for the independent weekly Sawt al-Omma, for criticizing irregularities in the appointment of lecturers at Al Azhar University. The weekly magazine was confiscated in September after criticizing Egypt's General Intelligence Services. The Editor in Chief of the paper has rejected the summons. Three journalists Hossam el-Hamalawy, Reem Maged, and Nabil Shraf al-Din were summoned to appear before military judges for criticisms of the SCAF.

Meanwhile, detained blogger Maikel Nabil has been cleared of mental illness by a panel at Abbasiya Mental Hospital. He has been returned to a military prison in northern Cairo. Nabil was sentenced to three years in military prison for writing a blog called "The people and the army were never one hand." Ironically, as the SCAF becomes more and more ruthless against civilians, the title of Nabil's blog appears to be increasingly correct.

Journalist summoned by military prosecutor

Detained Blogger Returns to Military Prison

Finally, in the wake of the Maspero tragedy, the European Parliament in Strasbourg passed a draft resolution accusing the Egyptian and Syrian governments of persecuting their Christian minorities. Some 10,000 Coptic Christians have left Egypt since March, 2011.

Egyptian Expatriates can now vote (perhaps), women organize, and Egypt Above All

2011-10-26T16:01:00.000+02:00

This report is compiled from my morning review of the Daily News Egypt, Al Ahram Online, and Al Masry Al Youm. This review was conducted over ahwa bi laban. Meanwhile, Tahrir is busy as "low-ranking (AFP's words, not mine) policemen strike in Hurghada and outside the Interior ministry in Cairo to demand the ouster of elements of the former regime, and improved pay.

In big news reported by all papers Egyptian expatriates now may, sort of, perhaps have the right to vote. Justice Abdel Salam Al-Naggar of the Administrative Court ruled that electoral headquarters should be established in Egyptian embassies around the world. A lawsuit was brought by a group of expatriates that included famous novelist Ahdaf Soueif. The Egyptian vote abroad movement was organized partly using social media, including Facebook, and twitter.

Mohamed ElBaradei talked about the matter before the revolution. Approximately 8 million Egyptians live abroad. Apparently, after the Revolution, numerous Egyptians began to register at Egyptian embassies in their host countries. It is not clear if the SCAF will respect the court's ruling. This ruling is not likely to translate immediately into implementation, and it is not clear if it will be applicable for the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Al Ahram points out that women in Egypt are organizing. Before the Revolution, women in the farming sector were forbidden from organizing. Female peasants in Imbaba district's Werdan village formed the first union for women farmers in Egypt this week. They aim to defend womens' rights in the sector, and fight for equal treatment of male and female workers in the agricultural sector. I am hopeful that this increased level of organization spills over into the political arena.

Mahmoud Ramzy of Al Masry reports that a newly formed coalition has formed supporting Field Marshall Tantawi, current president of the SCAF, as president of the Egypt. Posters have appeared in Cairo and Alexandria. The campaign is called "Egypt Above All." Gallows humor moment: I am fluent in German, and if we translate that phrase into German, it reads Aegypten ueber alles. Not good.

Rana Khazbak reports that The Revolution Continues Coalition is composed of the January 25th Revolution Youth Coalition and six other parties, including the Socialist Popular Alliance Party, the Freedom Egypt Party, and the Islamist Egyptian Current Party (a radical youth breakoff of the MB). They aim to filed 270 candidates on party lists, and 20 individual candidates. Sixty of the coalition's candidates are women, and more than fifty percent are young people. The ideological scale of the group is predominantly leftist, but it also includes an Islamist party.

Meanwhile, Nate Wright reports that the centrist El Adl party will compete in the parliamentary elections alone. It has refused to join the MB dominated Democratic Alliance, or the Egyptian Bloc led by liberals. The party wants to move away from patronage, and towards changing ideology.

Noha El-Hennawy reports that the MB will use the slogan "We bring good for Egypt." This is a move away from their earlier slogan "Islam is the Solution." The MB heads the Democratic Alliance, which includes 11 parties. The Freedom and Justice party will now run for all seats in parliament, because of the current list based system. This contradicts a promise that they made not to run for more than 50 percent of seats earlier this year. Heba Fahmy of the Daily News says the the Democratic Alliance List includes 76 women and 2 Copts. About half of the female candidates are on the top of the list.

Finally, Heba Fahmy tells us that the political parties found the list candidacy system this weekend very disorganized and difficult, but those vying for individual seats had no problems. Okay, now I am exhausted, and my coffee is finished.

Egyptian parliamentary election campaigns heat up

2011-10-25T13:19:00.001+02:00

Dear readers

We are approximately a month away from the Egyptian parliamentary elections. Hang on to your seatbelts!

The Wafd Party has fielded 332 list-based candidates in 46 electoral constituencies, and 96 individual candidates in 83 constituencies for the upcoming elections. Wafd Party President al-Sayed al-Badawy says there are 23 Coptic candidates on the lists, and 52 female candidates on the lists. Four former members of the NDP were nominated by the Wafd in the Red Sea, Qena, Minya and Sharqiya.

[One important point, it matters where your name is on the list. If your name is on the bottom of the list, and your party does not get very many votes, you will not get a seat in parliament.]

There has been large turnout for candidacy applications for parliament. The Egyptian Bloc, the Freedom party, and Wafd Party all have former NDP candidates on their list.

I am pleased to report that President Obama has asked Field Marshall Tantawi to end the state of emergency, and to end military trials of civilians.

I am sad to report that two activists and bloggers have been summoned by the military prosecutor for questioning regarding the Maspero violence. The bloggers are Alaa Abd El Fattah, and Bahaa Saber. One of the blogger's father reportedly remarked, " we are at a stage where the regime cannot stand freedom of expression anymore and wants to curb it. . ." Both have previously been arrested under Mubarak.

Meanwhile, as elections approach, NGOs say they are experiencing harassment from the government. The Justice Ministry is targeting NGOs who are allegedly receiving foreign funding and are not registered with the Ministry of Social Solidarity.

Sources shortly.~ WMB

Liberated Libya

2011-10-25T12:59:00.000+02:00

Dear readers

Liberation is breaking out all over. I am thankful for the positive outcomes in Tunisia's election. For more detailed coverage, I refer you to The Arabist. A Personal Note on Tunisia's Elections, The Arabist. But, I have limited time and energy, so will keep my focus on things closer to home.

Presciently, Democracy Now had reported before Qadaffi's death that Qadaffi was particularly threatened by Islamists, and ordered them detained, tortured, and killed. Nermeen Shaikh, Anjali Kamat, and Amy Goodman discussed the fact that Islamists will be free to speak under the new government.

Democracy Now also interviewed Mahmood Mamdani, of Uganda, who I think is a genius. He noted that Libya is more divided than neighboring Tunisia and Egypt. He commented on the increasingly military focused approach of the West towards Africa. Concerns were expressed by both Kamat and Mamdani that the NATO powers would try to extract concessions from the Libyans, with the potential for turning Libya into another Iraq.

Overall, DN has great Libya coverage. Here is a taste.

Muammar Ghadafi killed in Libya as Interim Government Seizes Last Stronghold. Democracy Now.

Democracy Now generally has great coverage of a lot of things, and even the New York Times has noticed.

A Grassroots Struggle Gives Voice to Struggles, New York Times.

Meanwhile, not everyone is happy about Qadaffi's death. Qadaffi was particularly close with Uganda. Many Africans believe that the west only intervened in Libya to gain access to the oil. Nigerian Muslims also mourned Qadaffi's demise, and some leaders suggested retaliation was possible. Qadaffi cultivated many African allies, and was a strong supporter of the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa. South African mercenaries may have been involved in helping Qadaffi escape.

Josh Kron, Many in Sub-Saharan Africa Mourn Qadaffi's Death, The New York Times.

Gadaffi's SA Soldiers, the New Age.

Meanwhile, the leaders of Libya's transitional government, including Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, the chairman of the Transitional National Council, has vowed that the new government will be based on Islamic tenets. Islamic banks will be established, and Libyan men can marry more than one wife now. (Hurrah for them). The New York Times characterizes this move as "a new piety."

Adam Nossiter, and Kareem Fahim, Revolution Won, Top Libyan Official Vows a New and More Pious State, The New York Times.

In my view, this statement in and of itself is not that controversial, as elements of Sharia are present in most countries, including Egypt. I have written many posts on this, including this one Initial Thoughts on Shariah Law and Women. The issue is whether having law based on Islamic tenets will result in discrimination against those who are not Islamic, such as Jews, Christians and Bahai. This is, in my opinion, a matter of both interpretation and enforcement. Has the US and NATO bet on the wrong horse again? Taliban anyone?

Sorry to be a contrarion, but I am one of those who is a bit concerned that Qadaffi was captured alive, and then executed. A better approach would have been to put him on trial, like Saddam Hussein or Hosni Mubarak. The right to a fair trial is, after all, one of the cornerstones of democracy.

Max Fisher, Qaddafi was captured alive, who killed him? The Atlantic.

I was appalled by Secretary Clinton's comments on Qadaffi's demise. Have some, gravitas Madame Secretary. Death is not a game.

We Came, We Saw, He Died.

WMB

Election Deadline in Egypt

2011-10-23T17:47:00.002+02:00

Today's papers are abuzz with the two-day extension granted by the High Elections Commission to prospective parliamentary candidates. (Until October 22, 2011)

Egypt's main electoral coalitions have submitted their candidacy papers. One big coalition consists of the Egyptian Bloc (mostly liberal and leftist), which will field at least 332 candidates in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The Bloc includes the Free Egyptians party, Al-Tagammu, and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. There are also members of the Revolutionary Youth running with the Bloc.

Amr Hamzawy (who works with me here in PPAD) belongs to the Misr Horreya party, which apparently withdrew from the Bloc and is now allied with the Popular Socialist Alliance, whom I have interviewed and the Arab Nasserists. Their group is to be called "The Revolution is On."

The Democratic Alliance, led by the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, is fielding 265 candidates. Sobhy Saleh, of the MB, says that "Egypt is an Islamic State, and nothing else." The Salafi's and the MB have had a spat, and now it seems that the Salafis (Nour and Asala parties) have allied themselves with the Jama'a al-Islamiya Construction and Development Party.

There is also a youth movement called the Coalition of Youth, which includes the April 6th Movement, the Popular Alliance, and the Youth for Freedom and Justice, as well as the Equality and Development Party.

The People's Assembly consists of 498 seats, two-thirds of which are allocated to the closed party list system, and one third to the individual candidate system.

Around 3024 people had registered as of last Monday as parliamentary candidates, most of them for the individual candidates seats. Many of those who registered as independents in the first seven days were members of the former NDP.

Selected Sources
Gamal Essam El-Din, "Little Election Wars," Al-Ahram Weekly
"Brotherhood party: We will compete for over 50% of People's Assembly Seats," Al Masry Al Youm
Heba Fahmy,"Egyptian bloc to field over 300 candidates, Democratic Alliance still to determine number," Daily News Egypt

Thoughts (some humorous, some serious) on the death of Qadaffi

2011-10-23T17:15:00.000+02:00

Of course, by now, various news agencies have verified that Colonel Muammar El-Qaddafi is dead, killed in his home town of Sirte.

I am not sure what I am feeling right now. Here are some random thoughts on his demise.

Has any dictator inspired so many dilemmas about how to spell his name? Ghadafi, Qadafi, Qadaffi, Ghadaffi, two dds or one? two f's or one? Q, G or K? the list goes on and on. I have been thinking at night, before I fall asleep, why more people do not go for the straight phonetic of Kadaphee?

Further, you have to congratulate the man on his audacity to make everyone read his "Green Book." The allusions to Mao are as inescapable, as Qaddafi's arrogance was spectacular.

From a political perspective, the most important aspect of The Big Q's death is that the rebels can now officially establish a transitional government and officially announce the country's liberation, and schedule elections. Of course, scheduling elections in Egypt has been harder than it sounds.

Some, such as Robert Grenier, suggest that Qaddafi's demise signals the end of Nasserist Arab nationalism. This is an interesting thought. I think a more expansive idea might be that nationalism itself is in its end days. Meanwhile, regionalism is an increasingly more important concept, recalling the Ottoman empire, which encompassed Libya, Tunisia and Morocco on its very periphery. It is interesting that in a way Qaddafi was important to actually helping found Libya as a distinct nation.

Many in Sub-Saharan Africa are mourning Qaddafi's death. He was very generous with African countries, building mosques, hotels, and telecommunications companies. Honestly, I cannot help but be impressed at how long he kept the rebels on the run, despite their strong support from NATO. You have to admire the Q man's tenacity. Okay, maybe you do not, but I am impressed at how long he hung in there.

The real question for the new Libya is who are the rebels?

Furthermore, given that we here in Egypt are struggling to get our first democratic election off the ground, the road ahead for Libya may not be as easy as it looks right now, and jubilation may be premature.

However, as I always tell my friends, when you are happy, laugh out loud, and when you are sad, let those salty tears run down your face. Feel what you are feeling, because who knows what the next moment will bring?

Selected Sources

Muammar Gaddafi killed as Sirte falls, Al Jazeera.net
Gaddafi: Death of an era, dawn of an era, Al Jazeera.net
Violent End to an Era as Qaddafi Dies in Libya, New York Times

Other Good Analyses re Maspero

2011-10-19T12:31:00.001+02:00

Dear readers

I went to graduate school at Harvard with Anthony Shenoda.We were Graduate Research Associates at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. He argues that Copts are largely invisible in Egyptian society until they are attacked. Here is a link to his recent work on Maspero in Jadaaliya, which is a good magazine, by the way.

Reflections on the (In)Visibility of Copts in Egypt.

Yasmin Salem says the Copts face institutionalized racism in Egypt.

A Case of Institutionalized Racism?

If you read Arabic, here are Maspero testimonies.

Testimonies of Eyewitnesses in Maspero incidents.

My colleague Mr. Hussein talks on his blog Sibilant Egypt about the problems with press coverage that have emerged in the wake of the Maspero incident.

Will Maspiro ever be cleansed?

~WMB

Egyptian Election Update, October 18, 2011

2011-10-18T12:52:00.000+02:00

On Wednesday October 12, 2011, election committees nationwide began accepting nomination applications for Egypt's November 28th Parliamentary elections.

Many observers believe that the MB's Freedom and Justice party is extremely prepared for these elections organizationally and politically.

Meanwhile, papers reported that some political forces are considering boycotting the elections. The SCAF has announced that two thirds of parliamentary seats will be allocated to list based candidacies, and one third to the single winner system. Political parties have expressed concerns that the single-winner system favors remnants of the NDP.

Meanwhile, confrontations between the Salafis and the MB are escalating. There are two major coalitions. The MB Freedom and Justice party is a member of the Democratic Alliance. A recently formed coalition of Salafi parties includes the Jama'a al-Islamiya party. The Salafis are ultraconservative Islamists, and have left the Democratic Alliance to form their own coalition. ("Confrontation Escalates between Brotherhood and Salafis," Al Masry Al Youm, October 17, 2011) The President of the Omma al-Gadid Party filed two lawsuits against the Democratic Alliance and the MB's Freedom and Justice Party. He accused them of stacking the list with their candidates, while underrepresenting the 18 alliance member parties.

The Military and Maspero

2011-10-18T12:37:00.001+02:00

The smoky haze created by the social fire called the Maspero tragedy still blankets Egypt.

As I have reported in earlier posts, deadly clashes between the military, unarmed Coptic Christian protesters, and thugs left at least 26 dead, and more than 300 injured last week. The SCAF has promised to form a fact-finding committee. The clashes were some of the worst violence the country has seen since the January 25th Revolution. ("Egypt Army seeks probe into Cairo clashes," AlJazeera.net, October 11, 2011)

International rights groups condemned the Maspero violence, including the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, Human Rights Watch, and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Some have called on the US to withhold military aid to Egypt. Military aid to Egypt may be worth as much as 1.3 billion dollars. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton spoke on the phone with Minister of Foreign Affairs Amr Mohamed to offer condolences to the victims of the Maspero violence. ("US rights groups slam Egypt's military for Maspero violence, Al Masry al Youm, October, 12, 2011)

The Egyptian military denied charges that the military used live ammunition on protesters, and also denied that army vehicles crushed demonstrators under their wheels. (Amirah Ibrahim, "We did not Kill protesters," Al Ahram Weekly, Week of October 16, 2011) Members of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces denied at a press conference that soldiers used weapons or force during the protest. (Rana Khazbak, "Military denies use of forces, accuses protesters of armed violence in Maspero, Al Masry Al Youm, October, 12, 2011)

However, online videos, as well as credible journalists present at the scene give credence to these allegations. ("Egypt's Army Defends Actions in Protest Crackdown," Al Masry Al Youm, October 12, 2011) General Mahmoud Hegazy, a member of the SCAF asserts that the armed forces "would never and have never opened fire on the people." (Ibid) The Army pins the blame for inciting violence on foreign elements.The SCAF has released its own videos showing individuals attacking soldiers with stones and a sword. (Al Ahram)

Major General Adel Emara claims that tear gas was used for riot control. He claimed that a soldier was driving an armored vehicle to disperse the crowd, when the vehicle was set on fire. He claims the driver was badly injured. (Khazbak,"Military denies use of force") Initial hospital reports show that most victims were killed by gunfire, or by being crushed by military vehicles. Emara accused the protesters of possessing firearms and antagonizing the armed forces. (Ibid.) He showed a video of protesters setting civilian cars on fire, and claimed that the priest was inciting people to violence. He called soldiers involved in the incident "martyrs."

According to a Reuters report on October 11, 2011, the SCAF is increasingly viewed as a new autocrat, borrowing a page from Mubarak's handbook. Christians and Muslims alike, reports reuters, say that the army's reaction during the Maspero event was as brutal as any of Mubarak's tactics. The Egyptian citizenry is increasingly impatient with Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, 75, the leader of the SCAF and a veteran of the 73 war against Israel.

Al Masry Al Youm, Egypt's most respected independent newspaper, condemned the military's actions in the Maspero tragedy. (Al Masry Editorial, "The military has gone too far, Al Masry al youm, October 11, 2011) They state a peaceful protest was met with excessive force by the military and the police. They urge that all those responsible for the violence be held accountable. The paper called for an elected government as soon as possible.

Amr Hamzawy, an activist and political force, and also a faculty member in my department at AUC, stated that " the partnership between the authorities, . . . the SCAF, the cabinet, and the citizens, is over. "("With Clashes, Egyptians Lose Trust in Military Ruler," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011) The New York Times reports that confidence in the SCAF reached a "breaking point" when the military tried to place blame for the deaths on the Coptic protesters, and denied the use of live ammunition. David Kirkpatrick, "Egypt's Military Expands Power, Raising Alarms." The New York Times, October 14, 2011)

As long as no presidential election is held, reports Reuters, executive power will remain in the hands of the military. The times quotes Maj. Gen Mahmoud Hegazy as saying the military will stay in power until Egypt has a president. Since no timetable has yet been set for presidential elections, this could mean that the SCAF stays in power well into 2013. (Ibid)

The Muslim Brotherhood blames remnants of the NDP, the party of Mubarak--now disbanded--for the violence in Maspero. MB Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie says that NDP members had threatened to set "Egypt on fire," if they were banned from political activity. He recommended an elected parliament, and an Ombudsman. (DPA, "Brotherhood supreme guide: NDP remnants behind Maspero bloodshed," Al Masry Al Youm, October 12, 2011)

The Daily News Egypt reports that Egyptians are worried, because the Army draws broadly from the national population. The idea that the military would attack civilians has thrown them into "shocked confusion."Sarah El-Deeb, "Stunned by bloodshed, Egyptians torn over army," Daily News Egypt, October 17, 2011). Sheik Osama raised an Orthodox Cross among mourners to show his support for Christian victims at a vigil Thursday. One woman, whose fiance was killed, said a military police officer kicked her fiance's corpse and hit him and called her "an infidel." (Ibid)

Collective insanity in the aftermath of Maspero

2011-10-12T17:49:00.006+02:00

According to Rana Khazbak of Al Masry Al Youm, members of the SCAF denied at a press conference today that soldiers used weapons or force during the Maspero clashes. SCAF general Emara claims that only tear gas was used. Major General Mahmoud Hegazy claims that soldiers were killed with bullets and gunshots, but the SCAF has not announced the names or numbers of military casualties.

Al Jazeera reports that the SCAF states the clashes were the result of "some to destroy the pillars of the state and sow chaos." I find Al Jazeera's reporting on this uncharacteristically weak. They do not mention that protesters were run over by tanks, or fired on by the military. They write that

"the Copts say they were marching peacefully when thugs attacked them, drawing in the military police who used what activists described as unnecessary force."

Why is this usually reliable news source soft pedaling this crucial story?

Hazem El-Beblawi, the deputy prime minister and finance minister tendered his resignation over the clashes. In another instance of collective insanity, the SCAF has rejected his resignation. Beblawi has told Reuters that he has not withdrawn his resignation, and he still wishes to resign.

The military's refusal to accept El-Beblawi's resignation, and their denial that the army used force are both symptoms of a type of collective insanity gripping the nation. The events were widely captured on film. Yet the Egyptian Army is claiming that the armored vehicle drove into a crowd when protesters set it on fire. Yet, this did not, in fact, occur.

Human rights lawyer Khaled Ali has brought in forensic doctors to the Coptic Hospital. Their reports show that the dead were killed by live ammunition or by being crushed by army vehicles. Amnesty International pins blame for the carnage on the military.

Update on Egyptian Elections October 11, 2011

2011-10-11T12:55:00.002+02:00

The Egyptian elections are still scheduled.

The US has called for restraint in the wake of the Maspero military killings of Copts. White House spokesman Jay Carney emphasized the need to move forward with timely elections and a continued transition to democracy.

Parliamentary elections currently appear to be scheduled on November 28, 2011.

The April 6th Youth Movement said that the group is launching an awareness campaign to teach citizens the meaning of their vote. Some observers have expressed concerns that formed NDP members may win seats through bribery or provision of social services. (Sherine Rabie, "Apil 6 Movement Launches Political Awareness Campaign Before Elections," Al Masry Al Youm, October 10, 2011)

On Saturday, the SCAF agreed to cancel a provision barring members of political parties from running as independents. Professor of political science Gehad Ouda explained that allowing members to run as individuals gives candidates two options, to run as part of a party list, or as individuals. Under Mubarak, all candidates ran on the single-winner system, which ensured solid majorities for NDP. See Ahmed Zaki Osman, "Recent Amendments may fail to ensure fair elections," Al Masry Al Youm, October 9, 2011)

Also on Saturday, the Egyptian Bloc Coalition, which includes 21 political parties, laid down its rules for the parliamentary candidates it will field. Members include the Egyptian Democratic Party, the Egyptian Social Party, and the Free Egyptians. Essam Serry, President of the Sout Al Horreya Party, said the party has not decided whether to run under the coalition or not. (Adel el-Daragli, "Egyptian Bloc Coalition sets criteria for parliamentary nominations," Al Masry Al Youm, October 9, 2011)

Maspiro: The Aftermath

2011-10-11T12:15:00.000+02:00

Mourners at Coptic Funeral. Photo Credit: Sarah Carr

Well folks,

We are all in mourning here in Cairo. Everyone is in tears. I am reaching out to all of my Copt friends. I just cannot believe that the military fired on, and ran over, unarmed civilians. Regardless of religion, this is very difficult to stomach.

One of my colleagues suggested that the military is actually using the Islamists. That had not occurred to me, but that makes sense in a way. If the country is wracked by sectarian violence, the elections will be derailed, and the military retains power. Another colleague, who is a devout Muslim, places blame squarely on the head of Field Marshall Tantawi, head of the SCAF.

Regardless of religion, the goal here is DEMOCRACY. Do not get distracted. Keep your eyes on the prize. We need to stay focused on peaceful, free and fair elections for all Egyptians, Sufi, Shia, Sunni, Copt, Bahai and secularists.

Here is the Arabist's take on it. Maspero and Sectarianism in Egypt.

Here is journalist Sarah Carr's powerful eyewitness account. Marching from Shubra to Deaths at Maspero.

On to the news.

According to the Arabic edition of Al Masry Al Youm, Egyptians demonstrated in Aswan, Alexandria, Ismailia, Qena, Fayoum, and Assiut. Islamic groups held demonstrations in Aswan "condemning Coptic attacks on military personnel." Meanwhile, security forces strengthened their presence around churches to avoid further clashes. ("Egyptians demonstrate in wake of Maspero violence," Al Masry Al Youm, October, 10, 2011)

Umm, is it just me, but why do people believe that the Copts attacked the Army. It just does not make sense from a strictly logical standpoint. Just a little bit of gallows humour here: what are the Copts going to do, fight the Army with giant crosses? But seriously, it is pretty implausible that the Copts attacked the Army. I do not buy it. Many Muslims realize that these clashes represent incitement to sectarian strife, which is ultimately destabilizing.

According to Al Masry Al Youm, political party leaders and activists met Monday and called for an immediate transfer of power to civilian authorities. Political leaders also criticized the state run media's provocative coverage of Sunday night's violence. Leaders in attendance included Naguib Sawiris (Free Egyptians), Amin Iskander (Nasserist Karama Party), former finance minister Samir Radwan, and Hossam Eissa.

Amr Moussa stated "We as Egyptians are facing a problem. It's not a Coptic and Muslim Problem. It is not a military or civilian problem, but it is a problem in Egypt's flawed society and inter-relations." Amr Moussa is a presidential candidate and a former foreign minister under Mubarak.

Okay, overall that is a good statement. However, I disagree with him on one issue. If the military fires on civilians, that is a military and civilian problem in my book. Call me crazy. . . .Anyway, Moussa lost my support when he stressed the importance of "ruling with an iron fist in order to protect the country from looming chaos." Sounds like he is on the SCAF payroll to me. . . .

Many leaders present criticized the SCAF's rule, and blamed them for their role in Sunday night's events. Those critical of the SCAF included Abdel Gelili Mostafa, leader of the National Association for Change, Mohamed ElBaradei, Ayman Nour, leader of the liberal New Ghad party, Mohamed Abul Ghar, president of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, and female presidential hopeful Bothaina Kamel.The leaders also criticized state TV's coverage of the incidents, stating that this coverage was inciting sectarian violence. (Rana Khazbak, "Political Forces Slam Ruling Military Council for Attack on Copts," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011)

Egypt's state run media, which whitewashed the Revolution, has been harshly criticized in the wake of the Maspiro massacre. Minister of Information Osama Haikal urged the media to deal "wisely" with the clashes in their coverage. Maspiro (or Maspero) is the site of the Egyptian television, as well as the site of numerous protests. On State Run Channel One, Rasha Magdy said that Coptic protesters had been attacking soldiers and ended her show with a call for Egyptian citizens to protect the military. Many view her call as an incitement to sectarian violence. Many media personalities who work in state television have distanced themselves from the official coverage of the incident. The main message of the state run news (the state run paper is Al Ahram) is that conspiracies are underway to arouse conflicts between the armed forces and the people. (Mai Elwakil, "State Media Coverage of Maspero violence raises tempers," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011)

According to Ahmed Zaki Osman, some eyewitnesses claim the military threw the bodies of dead protesters into the Nile during Sunday night's clashes. These reports are unverified. (Ahmed Zaki Osman, "Eye-witnesses claim military threw protesters bodies into the Nile," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011)

A Guest Blogger Comments on Maspiro: The Massacre of Christians in Cairo

2011-10-11T11:23:00.004+02:00

Photo Credit: L'Indro

Dear friends,

This post was written by my teaching assistant. His name is John Ehab. He is a Copt, a journalist, an activist, and a masters student at AUC. It was published in an Italian newspaper. If you read Italian, check it out here. Un Esercito Contro I Copti, L'Indro.

Here it is in English.

After a deadly evening in Cairo Sunday night, families gathered to bid farewell to the 24 victims in a crowded mass funeral. The ceremony took place in Cairo’s central Coptic Cathedral in the presence of thousands of family members, supporters, activists and politicians. The killings took place after hundreds of Copts marched to protest the destruction of a church early last week in Aswan, which has not been resolved by the state.

Eyewitness accounts say that they were showered with live ammunition by members of the Egyptian armed forces. Witnesses added that protestors were literally bulldozed by Armored Personnel Carriers(APC), leaving behind a number of casualties. The Coptic Church synod, the highest council of the Coptic Church in Egypt, issued a statement that was read at the funeral assuring that violence had come from the side of the Armed Forces, not from the Copts. “We confirm that violence, with all its forms, was not used (by the protestors).” The statement also expressed that “Copts feel that the problems are reoccurring continuously without punishing the perpetrators”. The church called for three days of fasting and prayer to show that, for the Christians in Egypt, their only hope is to turn to God.

Many analysts have pointed out that the church’s statement reflects a lack of hope in the state. “You can read between the lines that the church no longer trusts those who run the state in Egypt, whether from the Security Council of Armed Forces , or the Cabinet,” said Ahmed Zaki Osman, a reporter familiar with Coptic issues. “The Christians simply have no hope in the state to bring them their rights anymore.”

One of those who attended the funeral, Zachariah Adly, who had also participated in the march the night before described his experiences to L’indro. Adly, a truck driver, said that the march had started in the primarily Christian area of Shobra, and continued several kilometers to the area of the state run TV, known as Maspiro in central Cairo.

“On the way people started stoning us from a bridge, until we reached the street leading toward the state TV building. Armed forces started shooting directly in the air and then began aiming at us. A few minutes after we saw their tanks coming towards us quickly to disperse the crowd.” Adly had to jump over a car onto the sidewalk to keep from being run over by the rushing vehicles.

Adly pointed out that the violence had come from the armed military forces, rather than civilians or even the security police. “In the same spot there were tens of riot police standing by and there were no clashes with them.”

That afternoon state TV, the mouthpiece of the Egyptian army, had announced that the army was calling for “honest citizens” to go to the streets to help protect security forces from the Christian protestors.

Witnesses who were at the Coptic hospital to donate blood for the victims told L’indro that thugs surrounded the hospital and started attacking the families of the victims late at night.

Initially, the state-run TV reported that 3 soldiers had been killed by Copts during the riots, without mentioning any civilian deaths. However, the SCAF never made an announcement to confirm or deny this report. Many activists began to challenge this claim.

Doctor Aida Seif El-Dawla explained to L’indro, “even the state-run media was unable to fabricate any photograph of Copts carrying weapons as they have done in the past.” She explained that usually if any member of the army died, the state-run news would air extensive coverage including details about him and his family in order to gain the sympathy of the public. In this case there was none of that.

Not only the national media, but other sources including Al-Jazira issued reports accusing “the Coptic youth” of instigating the violence. However, reports on the ground show otherwise. According to Seif El-Dawla, the founder of Al-Nadim Center for the rehabilitation of victims of torture, “it is very clear that the army is responsible. They are the ones that carry arms, and they are responsible for this massacre. The army took advantage of widespread prejudice toward the Copts to defend their behavior.”

The Coptic problem is one of the most vulnerable issues that has the potential to divide Egyptians, especially with the recent increase in Islamic fundamentalism.

Al-Nadim was among the independent human rights organizations in attendance at the Prosecutor General’s autopsy of the victims. Doctor Magda Adly, manager of the Al-Nadim Center, attended 7 out of 17 of the autopsies that took place at the Coptic Hospital in central Cairo. Four other bodies were buried earlier in the day without autopsies, and another five were reported to be in other hospitals.

Two of the seven, Adly reports, died by bullets, while the other five had been crushed by military vehicles with multiple fractions throughout their bodies. This confirms what can be seen in videos posted on YouTube of the APCs rushing protestors.

The decision to perform the autopsies came 20 hours after the deaths, a procedure which is normally done as soon as possible to optimize the results. The former director of the forensic medical unit was fired back in March due to similar delays in investigating the deaths of protestors from the January 25revolution.

“Field Marshal Tantawi should face trial like Mubarak,” Zachariah Adly believes. “Demonstrators have torched a police station and stormed the Israeli embassy, and no one killed them like what happened with us.”

Maspiro clashes against the Copts

2011-10-10T14:54:00.002+02:00

Photo Credit: Mohammed Hossam Edin

Dear readers,

Please forgive my sketchy cite form as I attempt to get the news out.

Violence occurred last night against the Coptic people of Egypt. Ten percent of Egypt's 80 million people are Copts. Cairo on Edge After Deadly Violence A group of mostly Coptic protesters clashed Sunday with military and police forces in the Maspiro area of Cairo. I have not been feeling well, so I learned of this from my Coptic teaching assistant. I have reached out to some of my Coptic students to make sure they are okay. They appear to be fine.

Sarah Carr reports that Coptic protesters rallied regarding an attack of a church in Aswan on September 30th. I summarize and paraphrase her compelling, vivid, and scary report here. The march began in the Cairo district of Shubra. (Sarah Carr, "A Firsthand account: marching from Shubra to deaths at Maspiro," AMAY 10/10/2011) The march statred at 4 p.m. The army had apparently hit a priest while dispersing protesters in front of the Maspiro state TV building on Wednesday. The march came under attack around 6 p.m. rocks were thrown at protesters from the bridge. Outside the Ramsis Hilton Hotel, gunfire began. Two armored personnel carriers started driveing through the protesters, and soldiers began firing at random. An APC drove toward the crowd, flattening protesters. Sarah Carr, "A Firsthand Account: Marching from Shubra to Deaths at Maspiro," Al Masry Al Youm, October 10, 2011

Other reports confirm that the army shot bullets intensively once the march arrived at Maspiro. ("At Coptic Hospital, Christians Hysterical over lost relatives," AMAY, 10/10/2011) Several victims were run over by Egyptian military armored personnel carriers. According to medics at the Coptic Hospital, all dead bodies were either run over by military vehicles or shot with gunfire. The floor of the Coptic Hospital was covered by blood.

Egyptian state TV has reported that "Christian protesters stole weapons from the army and killed soldiers."

The violence at the Maspiro state TV building left 24 dead, and 272 injured. ("Clinton Made no Statement," AMAY10/10/2011) The US embassy did ask people to remain calm. US Embassy statement about Maspiro Violence

I am at the AUC campus in New Cairo, and we are perfectly safe here. The university has issued no official security warnings. I am holding class tonight, and I have told my students they can choose whether to attend.

Prime Minister Essam Sharaf warned Egyptians of a "despicable conspiracy against Egypt." ("Sharaf: We are facing a conspiracy," AMAY 10/10/2011) Is this guy serious? I really do not think the New York Times got this story completely right. But, feel free to make up your own mind. Church Protests in Cairo turn deadly

As of 12:18 a.m this morning, eyewitnesses were reporting that groups of thugs were attacking Christian-owned businesses. A fierce street battle occurred on Ramses Street near the Coptic Hospital between groups in civilian clothes. Rioters set cars on fire, and threw molotov cocktails. Hundreds of thugs attacked the Coptic Hospital but were unable to get inside. Street clashes continued until early this morning. The MB condemned the clashes, but blamed both Coptic protesters and the military. By last night, the police had control of Tahrir Square, and protesters had left the area. ("Live Updates: As death toll rises in clashes," AMAY, 10/10/2011)

Some are concerned that the clashes could have been instigated by provocateurs. I second that emotion. It is not plausible that unarmed Christians attack the military. Mohamed Selim al-Awa, an Islamic thinker and presidential hopeful says that he has a video clip which exonerates the Coptic protesters from shooting at army soldiers. He says that gunmen arrived from nearby streets and shot at protesters and army forces at the same time. ("Islamic Presidential Hopefuls condemn violence," AMAY 10/10/2011) Some Muslim Activists have expressed solidarity with the Copts, stating that the problem is not between Christians and Muslims, but between the military and Christians. ("At Coptic Hospital," )

The question of the day is who is the instigator? It could be a bid by the old NDP to derail democracy. One of my colleagues suggested that it was the Copts trying to bring attention. I do not believe that, because why would the Copts attack their own hospital? Some Islamists have suggested that the incidents in Maspiro could be a bid by the military to tighten its grip on power. This strikes me as plausible. Or it could be the military working with the NDP . . . .

And then this craziness by Presidential candidate Aboul Fotouh who says "Christians picked the wrong time and place."

Oh dear. Gloria dios, se pican los pecados del mundo, ten piedad, ten piedad.

Egyptian Musical Interlude: Hisham Abbas sings Fino Habib Fino

2011-10-10T13:51:00.001+02:00

Somehow, my son Ali (who is 3) is in class with Tamara (4), the daughter of famous Egyptian pop star Hisham Abbas.

We went to a very posh birthday party at their house. The funny part is that I had no idea when I went to the party that it was at the house of a pop star. I asked them if I could bring some food or if I could help out. But looking at the video, yes, his face is the face of the father of Tamara. Anyway, the party was very posh, with trained dogs, doves, djs, jumping castles, and loads of food including a shewerma stand and a pasta stand. Thanks for your generosity Mr. Hisham. We had a lovely time.

Anyway, Mr. Hisham is a mechanical engineer, trained at AUC! I guess he followed his passion. we all should do that.

Musical Interlude: Yesterday by the Beatles

2011-10-06T12:51:00.003+02:00

Hi gang. I am feeling a little blue on Egyptian Armed Forces Day. I miss the euphoria of those first revolutionary days. Now we are in the Brumaire . . .

THE BEATLES
"Yesterday"

(Lennon/McCartney)1965

Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away
Now it looks as though they're here to stay
Oh, I believe in yesterday

Suddenly, I'm not half the man I used to be
There's a shadow hanging over me.
Oh, yesterday came suddenly

Why she had to go I don't know she wouldn't say
I said something wrong, now I long for yesterday

Yesterday, love was such an easy game to play
Now I need a place to hide away
Oh, I believe in yesterday

Why she had to go I don't know she wouldn't say
I said something wrong, now I long for yesterday

Yesterday, love was such an easy game to play
Now I need a place to hide away
Oh, I believe in yesterday
Mm mm mm mm mm mm mm

Happy Armed Forces Day

2011-10-06T12:23:00.001+02:00

Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt. It is a national holiday. The SCAF, using its Facebook page, has invited the Egyptian public to celebrate the 38th Anniversary of the October war in various public spaces in Cairo. The anniversary celebrates Egypt's military victories against Israel in the 1973 October War. Strikes me as rather Soviet. Also the focus on opposing Israel tends to distract people from the real problems at home.

Personally, I do not think there is very much to be happy about with regard to the Egyptian Armed Forces. As the eloquent protester in Tahrir has put it, we have traded one dictatorial government for another. Mubarak is gone, but Egypt is currently ruled by a military junta. The transition is going very slowly, and there are fears that there will not be a democratic transition at all. It is good news that we have a firm date for upcoming People's Assembly elections. However, the presidential elections are still far off, and the SCAF does not want to allow the parliament to have the power to review the military budget. Such a restriction would eviscerate parliament's power of the purse, and keep Egypt from being a true democracy.

There may be a massive protest tomorrow to demand a timetable for handing over power from SCAF to an elected civilian authority. The days when the people and the army were one hand seem far away . . .As the Beatles sang, Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away, now they look as if they're here to stay . . . sigh . . .

Regardless, my favorite newspaper Al Masry Al Youm reports that six presidential hopefuls have prepared a potential timetable for the transfer of power to an elected civilian president by April 15, 2012. This timetable intends to shorten the transitional period, which appears to be harming Egypt's economy. Indeed, the Minister of Manpower and Immigration, Ahmed al-Borai stated on Wednesday that Egypt is on the brink of bankruptcy. He cautioned Egyptian workers against "excessive demands."

The presidential candidates wish to submit their candidacy papers two weeks after the Shura council elections conclude. The period for presidential campaigning would run from February 15th to the end of March. The elections would begin on April 1, with runoffs on April 10, 2012. This accelerated timetable is in response to a constitutional declaration issued by the SCAF on September 25th stating that presidential elections will be held at the end of 2012, or the start of 2013.

Meanwhile, Noha El-Hennawy reports that some worry the generals may be eyeing the presidency. Under the military's plan, the generals will remain in charge until the end of 2012 at the earliest. This contradicts their initial pledges, which were that the SCAF would return to the barracks six months after presidential and parliamentary elections. The plan has changed repeatedly. Many fear the military is stretching the transitional period to prepare the ground for a general to run for president.

Ruling Council's proposed timetable ignites fears of a military president

In further political woes, Sarah Carr reports that my favorite Egyptian party, the SDP is riven by divisions. I cannot believe that they signed a document last Saturday in support of the SCAF! What is going on people? I am really feeling shocked and dissappointed. Mohamed Abul Ghar, ESDP's leaders said he left the meeting early and found that a paragraph had been inserted into the statement saying "the signatory parties ...declare their complete support for SCAF and recognize the role SCAF has played in protecting the revolution and transferring power to the people." Abul Ghar disavows this statement.

Egyptian Social Democratic Party Divided over military council statement

Political Parties Divided after some sign statement in support of military council

Well folks, things are not going that well. Prayers for the Egyptian people.

Sean Penn Becomes a Revolutionary

2011-10-04T15:57:00.000+02:00

This past Friday was the "Friday of Reclaiming the Revolution." Sometimes I just wonder if the activists will run out of names for their Friday protests?

Thousands of activists, including Sean Penn, occupied Tahrir this past Friday, September 30, 2011. According to the British Guardian Newspaper, "The two-time Oscar winner arrived in North Africa at the invitation of Egyptian film star Khaled El Nabawy as part of efforts to show the country is once again safe for tourists following the revolution earlier this year that overthrew the regime of president Hosni Mubarak." (Ben Child, "Sean Penn Joins Protesters in Egypt," The Guardian, October 3, 2011)

I like Sean Penn. He was compelling and plausible in the movie Mystic River. I also like it that he is an activist. One more reason for me to watch his movies!

Many protesters were objecting to the concept of military rule. Other protesters were condemning the extension of the state of emergency. Field Marshall Tantawi of the SCAF was a special object of the protesters' anger. Demonstrators also protested against military treatment of civilians. Many protesters emphasized that this revolution was not going to turn out like 1954, and that Field Marshall Tantawi is not Gamal Abdel Nasser.

As explained by a particularly eloquent protester--Mirale Mohamed Hashem--who channeled my thoughts exactly, "This is not why we revolted. The goal of the revolution was to get rid of a tyrannical, oppressive regime, not to replace it with another one." (Ali Abdel Mohsen, "Activists, Sean Penn, Take to Tahrir for Friday of Reclaiming the Revolution," Al Masry Al Youm, September 30, 2011)

On Saturday, the SCAF represented by Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sami Anan sat down with leaders of 15 political parties. According to Al Shorouk, the camps agreed to a roadmap to hand over power within one year, (although we have heard that song before). The hardline Islamist Jama'a al-Islamiya was not invited to the meeting. Apparently, the People's Assembly and Shura Council will hold their first meetings in January and March, respectively.

According to Ahmed Zaki Osman writing in Al Masry Al Youm, the political parties are divided over Saturday's meeting. The Wafd party as well as the MB's Freedom and Justice Party, and the Adl party signed a statement following the meeting pledging their support for the SCAF. Thirty members resigned from El Adl after they signed this statement. This statement was met with derision by the Popular Socialist Coalition Party.

The Wafd party has allegedly been recruiting former NDP members. This has apparently created a rift between Wafd and the MB's Freedom and Justice Party, which were thinking of forming a coalition. On Monday, the SCAF approved a treachery law which supposedly will prevent Mubarak regime members from being active in politics for five years, and remove those officials from their government positions. The treachery law was passed initially after the 1952 Revolution.

Meanwhile, Egypt is in financial trouble. Economic growth is at 1.36 percent in the 2011-2012 financial year. Growth for the 2010-2011 financial year was at 1.8 percent, a low figure. Mohamed El Baradei has warned that Egypt may face bankruptcy within six months, and criticized the SCAF for economic incompetence.

Public Transport workers strike

2011-10-02T15:42:00.001+02:00

Yesterday I made my weekly pilgrimage into downtown. I live in Rehab, which is part of Greater Cairo, but kind of a suburb out in the desert near the AUC campus. I enjoy getting into town and experiencing the urban life of one of the greatest cities in the world.

I came into town and had a lovely cocktail with an editor friend of mine, at Al Masry Al Youm and a journalist friend. We went to Estoril, at Talaat al Harb, which is one of the most atmospheric of Cairene venues.

Walking back to the car in the evening, the road was blocked by large buses with large banners hanging on the front of them. There were hundreds of workers sitting on the street, smoking, drinking coffee and eating Taamiya. Apparently, this was the public transport strike which I read about in the news this morning. The workers closed Qasr al Ainy street and said they would remain until the cabinet responded to their demands.

The workers are demanding higher salaries, and improved services. According to my guest lecturer, Dr. Samer Soliman, one of the issues plaguing the public sector in Egypt is the vast inequity in public pay. In some offices, employees earn millions of pounds a month. In other offices, employees earn a few hundred pounds for similar work. These issues must be resolved as the revolution progresses.

~WMB

Governance, Accountability and Stakeholders in Egypt

2011-09-28T13:24:00.000+02:00

This semester I am teaching a class at the American University in Cairo called "Governance, Accountability, and Stakeholder Negotiation. It is a masters level class in public policy. It is a lot of fun, and we have been doing a lot of reading on how to improve governance in the Middle East and Africa. For example, we have read the Ibrahim Index as well as the World Bank MENA governance News and Notes.

This week, we were very lucky to have a special guest. Dr. Samer Soliman came and spoke to our class. He is the author of an important book just published by Stanford University Press. The book is titled The Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change Under Mubarak. In this book, Dr. Soliman evaluates the Egyptian budget to get lessons about allocation patterns, and the character of the authoritarian Egyptian state.

Here are some of his comments (paraphrased) on governance and accountability.

Accountability

The main issue of the Army is the budget. The second issue is that the Army has an economic empire. The military empire is off budget. If you examine the details of the Egyptian budget, you will not see it, but the evidence is all around us. One concern for the transition is that the Egyptian military is trying to prevent the new president from having power over the budget.

It will likely take a while to move the military to its proper place in society. In Spain, the transition to democracy took 15 years. Currently in Egypt, we are operating under an interim constitution. At the moment, there is no article in the constitution that has a popular monitoring of the budget.

We need an army, and we need a state. There has actually been a long term weakening of the Army since Sadat. The Nasser regime was really a military regime. This is less true today. In Iraq under Saddam, there was no distance at all between the regime and the state. This is also true of Syria today. In Egypt, there is some distance. The military is not divided along sectarian lines, like the Syrian military. It is important to get the military budget into the state budget. Right now, there is a lack of civilian control of the budget.

Taxation plays an important role in accountability. Taxation in Egypt is currently corrupt and inefficient. Democracy facilitates the task of taxation because it enhances popular legitimacy. We also need progressive taxation.

Stakeholders

With regard to stakeholders under the Mubarak Regime, there were no real political parties. There were just pressure groups. The opposition parties had no chance to rule. New political parties are emerging. In the future, we will have real political parties in Egypt. Syndicates will be much more important. There was no real syndicate life under the old regime. The syndicates can play an important role as an instrument of bargaining and problem solving. Many social groups in Egypt do not have real power. The Egyptian diaspora is important. Civil society will be more important in the new period. The SCAF is pushing the diaspora aside because they are dangerous. They are a huge asset in terms of their money, their knowledge, and their connections.

Elections

It is not correct that the SCAF will be appointing all 100 members of the task force to write the constitution. Rather, they will set the criteria of how people for the task force are selected. The parliamentary elections will be in November. Then, there will hopefully be presidential elections, although it is vague. The constitution should be drafted within 6 months after the presidential elections. There is no guarantee that the constitutional drafting will be finished in the transition period.

Egyptian Social Democratic Party

The party I belong to is the SDP. It is objectively, the best party in Egypt, and you should join it. {laughter}. We respect the market economy, but we also believe in a welfare state, and we support social justice. Our party is based on the assumption that economic development needs to create opportunities for the poor, but still be based on the market. We want to give people the instruments and means to defend their rights. It is creative conciliation between the market, and social democracy.

The plot thickens

2011-09-27T15:10:00.000+02:00

Egyptian politics gets more and more dramatic. On Sunday, the SCAF approved new amendments to the elections law. As a result, two thirds of constituencies will be allocated according to the list-based system, and one third according to the single-winner system. Further, the SCAF has reduced the number of seats in the People's Assembly from 508 to 498.

As a colleague explained to me yesterday, having one third single-winner system makes electoral districts bigger. So, if 1/2 of the candidates are under a single-winner system, then the 80 million people of Egypt will elect 249 members of the People's Assembly via a list, and 249 via single-member districts. If 1/3 of the candidates are under a single-winner system, then the 80 million people of Egypt will elect 166 people as individual candidates. That means that the electoral districts will be divided among 166 candidates. The electoral districts will be larger, which will favor established, wealthy, well-known candidates, (NDP and MB) and disadvantage candidates from new parties.

Further, this mysterious workers and farmers requirement was explained to me. To be named a "worker" or a "farmer" you have to get a certificate which acknowledges you as such from the Egyptian government. This is essentially a back door way of favoring local notables, people like the sherif, or omda, or people from wealthy families.

My colleague is Samer Soliman, of the Social Democratic Party of Egypt.

Egyptian Social Democratic Party

According to Al Masry Al Youm today, "Under Mubarak, all candidates ran as individuals in an electoral system which critics argued ensured solid majorities for the NDP." (Ahmed Zaki Osman, "Military seeking to hamstring parliament through elections law amendments," Al Masry Al Youm, September 27, 2011) Thus, the list based system is a partial victory for new parties.

Around eight political parties established by members of the former regime have been granted legal status.

Confusion over electoral districts

2011-09-25T17:55:00.001+02:00

Dear readers

I would be lying if I said I understood all the fine points of Egyptian election laws, but Allah knows I am trying!

Again, on September 21, 2011, Assistant Defense Minister Mamdough Shahin announced that the parliamentary elections will be held as scheduled, under a mixed system of 50 percent list-based and 50 percent single-winner candidacies. People's Assembly elections will be held separately from those of the Shura Council. The People's Assembly elections will be held at the end of November over three stages of two weeks each.

Somehow, Egyptian law as recently passed by the SCAF requires that 50 percent of parliament should be made up of farmers and workers. I like this sentiment. I think it is great. But as an academic, I wonder who decides exactly who is a farmer or a worker? Who makes the decision? What is the test? Are we looking for small farmers, fellaheen, or will anyone with land under cultivation do? This creates a post-modernist dilemma for me? In whose hands does the decisionmaking lie?

Further, there is unhappiness over electoral districts. There is a military backed electoral law regarding the mapping of electoral districts. Many parties are unhappy with it, including Egypt Freedom, Egyptian Social Democratic Party, Free Egyptians and Wasat party. The law, apparently, seems to help the old NDP. Once I understand what the law actually says, I will be sure to let you know.

The 25 January Revolution Youth Coalition as well as the Muslim Brotherhood-led Democratic Alliance for Egypt may announce their lists of candidates before the parliamentary poll scheduled for November.

Adel al Morsy, head of the Military Judicial Authority, has announced that the State of Emergency will continue until June 30, 2012.

List system in upcoming elections?

2011-09-20T17:39:00.000+02:00

Election related news round up from Al Masry and Al Jazeera

Today, Tuesday, Presidential hopeful Mohamed ElBaradei called for the exclusive use of a list-based candidacy system in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

On Twitter, ElBaradei wrote, "Even if it requires the amendment of the Constitutional Declaration, the implementation of the list-based system for 100 percent [of parliamentary seats] is the best guarantee for the representation of all groups following decades of absence of democracy."

Speaking in Damietta at a rally, Presidential hopeful Amr Moussa has called on the ruling SCAF to swiftly hand over power to an elected civilian president. He also emphasized his opposition to the extension of the emergency law.

Youths in Daqahlia Governorate attacked Moussa and called him a remnant of Mubarak’s regime.

Political parties, election dates, and other news you can use

2011-09-20T16:43:00.000+02:00

According to my favorite newspaper, Al Masry Al Youm, the SCAF plans to announce the exact dates of the People's Assembly (lower house) and Shura Council (upper house) elections on September 26, 2011. Taken together, the People's Assembly and the Shura form the Egyptian parliament.

The SCAF is likely to set November 21, as the starting date for parliamentary elections, according to Al Ahram, the state-run newspaper. However a different source said that the the People's Assembly elections may be on November 21, 2011 and the Shura council elections on Feb 22d, 2012. Each election will be associated with a series of runoffs.

No date has been set for the presidential poll.

Minister of Local Development Mohamed Ahmed Attiya, according to Al Masry Al Youm, has expressed concerns that the SCAF may cancel the single winner voting system, and only allow elections based on proportional list-based voting.

Various political parties expressed concerns that rules may allow loyalists of the NDP to reemerge. The Muslim Brotherhood has pushed for an election based on proportional lists. Under this system, parties or alliances draw up a list, and voters choose between the different lists, rather than the individuals. South Africa uses such a system.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party announced on September 19th that it will compete for more than 40 percent of the 504 seats in the parliament. This is down from their previous estimates that they would compete for 50 percent of seats. The MB is seen as one of the most organized political forces in Egypt. Other Islamist parties include al-Nour which follows the strict Salafi school of Islam. Further, Egypt's Shia minority, which was oppressed and kept out of both social and political life under Mubarak, has announced that it will form a party. Experts say the Shia may represent less than 100,000 Egyptians. The Shia party will likely be called the Unity and Freedom Party.

Letter to Donald Horowitz (long version)

2011-09-19T10:30:00.003+02:00

Dear editors,

I am writing to comment on an excellent article by Donald Horowitz about Egypt published in the Summer 2011 issue of the Wilson Quarterly.

I write not to quibble with Horowitz' largely thoughtful analysis, but to provide some new information and some nuance. In that article, Horowitz makes the following arguments. He argues that due to the short time table for the current elections, the well organized Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and some reconstituted version of the old regime's National Democratic Party (NDP) will win a large share of the 508 seats in Egypt's lower house of parliament (the People's Assembly). He also notes how important it is to determine the rules that govern how elections are structured. The proportional list system, argues Horowitz, will be beneficial to liberal, secular parties.Finally, he points out that lessons from other nations teach us that the greater the number of individuals involved in drafting a constitution, the higher the resulting level of democracy.He makes an important note that the technical rules around drafting the constitution matter, and can lead to a higher level of democracy.

I would like to make the following three points in response to his article.

First, I agree that the MB will likely benefit from earlier elections. It appears, however, that parliamentary elections will not be held in September. Nor will candidacy even begin in late September, as previously thought. Previously, we had thought elections would be held in November. Now, however, fluidity remains in the scheduled election dates. Mohammed El Baradei and other presidential candidates have asked for Presidential elections to be held in February because they need time to regroup.

Many analysts say that the MB, Islamists, and the remnants of the old regime wish to have elections as soon as possible, because their forces are more organized. The sooner elections are held, they argue, the better the MB and NDP will do. By contrast, later elections will assist the secular groups, and leftists.

The risk in delaying elections is that due to delay, there will be no elections. Perhaps I am wrong, but personally, I would prefer a government which includes representation from an elected Muslim Brotherhood pressured by moderate forces to a government run by decree by an unelected SCAF. By delaying elections, the SCAF is left in place, which increases the period of time during which Egypt is ruled by a military junta. The Muslim Brotherhood is not the most radical of Islamist forces on the ground in Egypt. Further, the Muslim Brotherhood has shown both the ability and the willingness to converse with secular forces. Finally, it is likely that the Muslim Brotherhood will win far fewer seats than outside observers fear.

Second, I would like to note that the Egyptian political scene is vibrant and varied. With the advent of the Revolution, new leftist parties have emerged. These include the Public Social League, or the Coalition of Socialist parties (Al Tahalof al Shabee Al Eshterakee). They are firmly committed to the civil state, the rights of women, improvements in health care and education, and supporting the farmers, the workers, and the youth. This group has solid intellectual credentials, significant experience, and a sophisticated long-term strategy. They may not win an enormous amount of votes in the first election, but they are certain to be influential on the Egyptian political scene in the coming years. Another moderate leftist party in the vein of the British Labor party, or the German Social Democrats, is the Egyptian Social Democrat party. This party includes many Anglo Christians and Copts, but is styled in the grand old tradition of European moderate left.

In addition to the more leftist parties, a new generation of liberal, free market parties are emerging in Egypt. These include the Free Egyptians (Hezb Al Masreen Al Ahrrar) party. This party was established by telecommunications mogul Naguib Sawiris, and supports free enterprise principles. It supports improved equality for women and Copts, a civilian government, and major efforts to reduce poverty. Another important liberal party is the Democratic Front Party (Hezb Al Gabha Al Democrateya). This party was extant under the Mubarak government, but refused to participate in parliamentary elections. It fought for measures to secure fair elections under Mubarak. The party participated in the Egyptian Revolution, and is popular with middle-aged Egyptian voters. Amr Hamzawy — a perennial favorite among the youth due to his good looks, charisma, and impressive intellectual credentials — is currently affiliated with the Egyptian Freedom Party (Masr Al Horeya). He has returned from his post with the Carnegie Endowment in Beirut to help build political awareness in Egypt and is currently teaching at the American University in Cairo. The Egyptian Freedom party supports democracy, delegation of authority, the sovereignty of law, equality, and a reduction in social classes. The party also supports decentralization and more autonomy for governorates.

My final observation is that who selects the people on the Constitution drafting task force is extremely important. Originally, the representatives from the task force were to come from parliament. Currently, the SCAF is stating that it will select all 100 members of that task force. This is extremely problematic. As Horowitz points out, it is important for a multitude of groups to be involved in drafting the constitution. If the SCAF selects the groups in the constitutional task force, it will drastically limit diversity of composition, as well as views. The referendum task force, for example, had no women. Obviously, Copts need representation on this task force, but so do people from Upper Egypt, Nubians, women, leftists, secularists, and other minorities. At this point, the SCAF seems committed mainly to perpetuating its own existence as the head of Egyptian government. Accordingly the most important details to get right at this point, are ones of process and inclusion. A broad swath of the Egyptian people need to have some say in who writes the constitution. And the Egyptian people need a hand in helping to determine which procedures will be used to ensure free and fair elections.

When will the Egyptian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections be Held?

2011-09-15T11:29:00.002+02:00

The million dollar question is when will elections be held in Egypt? The short answer is that it is not yet clear.

Presidential hopefuls, including Mohammed El Baradei have asked that the SCAF hold the upcoming Presidential elections in February. Seven presidential candidates met on Tuesday.

Al Masry al Youm reports

Presidential hopefuls Mohamed ElBaradei, Amr Moussa, Mohamed Selim al-Awa, Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, Hamdeen Sabbahi and Hazem Abu Ismail took part in the meeting, in addition to Hesham el-Bastawisi, who participated via telephone from abroad.

Presidential Hopefuls Demand Elections be held in February

On September 14, the SCAF said that it is willing to amend the law on parliamentary elections currently scheduled for November. The Egyptian parliament is composed of two houses: The People's Assembly and the Shura. However, it says that 50 percent of seats should go to workers, and 50 percent to farmers. This is interesting, because who will decide and define who workers are and who farmers are.

In July, the SCAF passed a law suggesting that half the parliament should be elected on an individual basis and half the parliament should be elected on a proportional closed list basis. The press says that the "Military council passed a law." However, in the absence of a parliament, perhaps the correct terminology should be that the "military council issued a decree."

In August, Egypt's High Election Commission formed six subcommittees to manage the oversight of parliamentary elections. These subcommittees are in charge of 1) voting and balloting stations 2) voters lists including names and IDs 3) candidates campaign logos 4) investigating and addressing elections related complaints 5) the participation of election observers 6) rules regulating electoral propaganda.
The Muslim Brotherhood, however, does not want any delays. They say that the legitimacy of the transitional period will end on September 27th.

However, many analysts say that the MB, Islamists, and the remnants of the old regime wish to have elections as soon as possible, because there forces are more organized. The sooner elections are held, the better the MB and NDP will do. Later elections will assist the secular groups, and leftists. The risk, however, is that delaying elections will result in no elections. Further, by delaying elections, the SCAF is left in place, which increases the period of time during which Egypt is ruled by a military junta.

Meanwhile, in another ominous portent, Al Jazeera's Mubashr Misr channel has been shut down and new satellite channels will not be authorized. Without a free media, it is difficult to hold a free and fair election. Some analysts worry that this media crackdown is an effort to prevent coverage of vote-rigging and other anti-democratic practices.

Sources

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495780
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495805
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495770
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/484067

AUC Strike: Drums and Drama

2011-09-15T11:02:00.001+02:00

AUC students and workers strike. Photo Credit, Al Masry Al Youm

Dear readers

In a previous post, Back to Campus Egyptian Style, I mentioned that a strike had started on Sunday, September 11, 2011 at the American University in New Cairo, where I teach public policy.

Today is Thursday, and the strike has gotten successfully bigger, more dramatic and stressful. A few days ago, the students and security guards let in all the students' cars, even those who had not paid parking fees. The result was a massive traffic pileup. I asked the bus driver to let me out, and I walked with my three year old over the sand and through Gate 4 onto campus. A kind student held one of my son's hands, and I held the other one, to make sure he did not get run over or trampled.

There are a host of constituencies and a host of demands. Among the demands are that the recent 9% increase to student tuition be reduced. The students believe it is too high. The custodians, security guards and desert landscaping crew want two days off a week, as well as a minimum wage of 2000 Egyptian Pounds (roughly 400 dollars). I am more sympathetic to the workers' demands, and less sympathetic to the students' demands. There is no question that the workers at the university are underpaid and overworked, as I discussed in a previous post. The Custodian Project.

Custodians at AUC make about 1100 EGP (roughly 200 dollars). That being said, 1) the University faces a punishing deficit of over 8 million dollars 2) President Anderson increased wages of all essential workers as one of her first acts of coming into office in January and 3) AUC workers are paid far more than workers in similar positions at comparable universities. Essentially, the students and staff want the university to reduce revenues, while increasing costs. This does not work. It does not work in the United States Congress, it does not work in my house, and it won't work at AUC.

Yesterday there was a meeting in Bassily Hall. The University President, the Vice President for Planning and Finance, and the Provost were all there to answer questions. I attended that meeting. From my perspective, I felt that the President was listening and I felt that she was reasonable. She said that the University agreed that they needed more transparency in budgeting, and that they needed to resolve negotiations with striking groups such as the security guards, the custodians and the desert landscaping team more quickly. She also said they would consider freezing tuition for incoming students. Some custodians spoke, some students spoke, and some security guards spoke. There were many faculty present, but none spoke.

At the same time as the meeting in Bassily Hall, there was a "counter-meeting," in HUSS. The students and workers set up an opposite meeting at the same time as the president's meeting. They came and got students out of our meeting, and marched towards HUSS. They were accompanied by some wonderful drum playing Folkloric Musical students. There was some fantastic drumming, a little dancing, and a lot of revolutionary spirit. It was quite a show. I felt a pang of guilt as I saw some academic colleagues walking in the other directions with the students, while I walked the other direction, towards the administration.

I am a union person, and in my heydey, when Lisa Anderson was my professor at Columbia, I participated in protests against my university. Out of solidarity, I attended the first rally on Sunday. I cannot gainsay the students' spirit. I am really happy to see the students and workers working together. That is wonderful. I think they have some points, but I also feel really badly for the administration, which has been slashing costs, retiring and firing staff, and cutting faculty wages. I wonder if I was like this twenty years ago? Did I not listen, or try to hear the administration's perspective? Was my cause more just, and the Columbia administration less responsive? Memories.

I also want to note that the administration opened negotiations with all the constituencies, and the response of the students was to not attend the negotiations but to simply provide a written list of demands.

Yesterday, the students occupied the administration building. There has been plenty of local news coverage of the strike, which generally exaggerates the size of the crowds. It also does not seem to be giving correct figures re salaries. The average custodian at AUC makes 1100 EGP. After deductions, that person may take home 750 EGP. It is important to note that the custodians struck in 2010, and did receive a raise at the first of 2011.

Here is some press coverage

AUC students on strike

AUC students and workers launch strike against soaring fees and wage cuts

Here is an email from President Lisa Anderson to the AUC Community, dated September 13, 2011.

Dear AUC Community,

As I wrote in yesterday’s message, several members of the senior administration and I all cleared our schedules today in anticipation of meetings with each of the groups who had identified grievances and articulated demands in the protests of the last few days, as had been arranged by their representatives.

This morning, however, new sets of representatives, whose members are listed below, emerged and instead of participating in the scheduled meetings, they chose to submit sets of written requests. Over the course of the day, we reviewed each set of requests, and our responses are also outlined below.

I am pleased at the progress we have made today and applaud the skill of each of the groups in articulating a clear set of concerns. We are aware, however, that there are other groups of workers, in the library and elsewhere, whose concerns are not represented in any of these discussions, and we are committed to continuing this kind of consultation as a mechanism to identify and address shortcomings or areas in need of improvement at the University.

To allow all members of the AUC community the opportunity to discuss the current events on campus, I would like to invite you to attend what will now be our first University Forum of the year during assembly hour in Bassily Auditorium. To ensure ample time for discussion, we will hold a special extended session, from 1 to 3 pm.

Below are the representatives for each group who have identified the issues that are listed, as are the demands they brought forward and the University administration’s response.

Thank you,

Lisa Anderson

-----------------

Sector Representatives

Desert Development Center: Antar Nageh, Seoudi Hassan, Khaled Eid and Hossam Mohammed

Custodial workers: Walid Shebl, Mostafa Mohallel, Nasr El Saqa, Andil Ashour and Mohamed Khamees

Students: Ahmed Ezzat, SU vice president; Mohammed Hassan, student; Ahmed Alaa, SU president; and Marrie France, student

Security: Khaled Ibrahim, Ahmed Saad, Hemya Sayeed, Mohamed Saad, Ayman Sayed Aly and Ahmed El Sayed Ahmed

Faculty adviser: Sameh Naguib, adjunct faculty, SAPE

---------------------

Demands and Responses

Desert Development Center/Campus Landscape

1- “Meal allowance of LE 200”

The monthly meal allowance of LE 200 was included in the November 2010 pay scale revision with the understanding that no additional meal allowance would be considered.

2- “Friday and Saturday off”

All workers at the DDC currently have Friday off. Those who work on Friday do so at their request. Otherwise, official working hours for Level 2 and 3 staff are full days Sunday through Thursday, and a half day on Saturday. As long as the required 43 hour working week is met, however, working hours can be adjusted to permit staff to have longer weekend breaks. In fact, non-irrigation staff are encouraged to work these 43 hours during the five-day period Sunday through Thursday. For irrigation staff, a rotation will be established to permit individual staff members to work five days a week while ensuring that the landscape is irrigated several days a week.

3- “Change the uniforms”

Uniforms are ordered once a year, and the uniforms for 2010-2011 were ordered in June 2011. We are looking into the possibility of canceling the order for the half of the uniforms that have not yet been received so that we can consider alternative designs. A committee composed of managers and staff will be formed by the end of this month to deliberate on alternatives that may be available within the present budget allocation.

4- “The switch of temporary hires to permanent full-time employees”

Due to the current hiring freeze at the University, the DDC is not able to move all workers to regular employee contracts. Moreover, it is typical of any operation of this size to rely on the use of non-permanent employees in a number of areas. All staff on a temporary basis are clearly informed of their provisional status at the University when they are hired. The DDC landscape unit has a number of vacant positions presently "frozen" due to budgetary constraints. When these positions are open for recruitment, seasonal workers with appropriate experience are invited to apply for the positions. When there are applicants of equal merit, an applicant with previous successful work experience at AUC will be given preference.

5- “Replace the bus”

The University administration has agreed to include the landscape and irrigation staff bus within its AUC administered transportation service. The contract between the DDC and the present service provider will be cancelled with appropriate notice in the next two months, and the DDC workers will be provided transportation through the University’s contractors.

6- “Minimum wage of LE 2,000”

All DDC workers receive, at a minimum no less than LE 1,180 as a base salary, which is the market rate for landscaping and gardening workers in New Cairo. AUC reviews its pay scale periodically and makes adjustments to reflect labor market changes.

Security

1- “Raise the level of wages from Level 2 to Level 4”

Security guards at AUC are spread across Levels 2 to 5. The determination of level is contingent upon years of service and performance. As of September 2011, the market salary for Level 2 security officers is LE 1,320 and the market salary for Level 4 security officers is LE 2,630. To be eligible for movement to Level 4 placement, security officers must have at least 10 years of experience. All security guards at AUC who are at Level 2 have been working for the University for less than five years, and can expect to progress in the levels as they accumulate experience at the University and good performance reviews.

2- “Return of the additional 60 hours of overtime”

In the past overtime was often used not to compensate staff who worked exceptionally long or late hours but to reward good behavior (and it was withheld to punish bad behavior). We do not believe that it is healthy or safe for staff to routinely work 60 hours of actual overtime a month and hence we are moving gradually to ensure that overtime is paid for time actually worked, and is allocated fairly and safely. Therefore, this year we have moved the individual monthly overtime limit to 48 hours, instead of 60.

3- “Provide risk allowance”

The job specifications and requirements are reflected in the placement of the job on the appropriate level on the pay scale. All security guards receive medical and life insurance. The University regularly evaluates the risk level for each job and the market rate in determining the appropriate level.

4- “Shift to the technical level”

There are discrepancies in the benefits packages provided to staff at the same level which are the legacy of an older and now discarded system that categorized workers as Staff A or Staff B. We are aware of this inequity and expect that the report recommending a mechanism to rectify it will be ready by November 1, 2011.

5- “Shift security on the buses to permanent employees”

After the January 25th revolution, the University added security guards on buses as a temporary measure, which was deemed a necessary but additional unanticipated expense. All security guards on buses were brought on with the full understanding that they are temporary employees, and that their contracts would end.

6- “Consideration of years of experience and sequence of degrees in the hiring process”

The University deeply appreciates all members of its security force, especially those with more than a decade of dedicated service. In light of this, the University reviewed the distribution of guards across levels. Seven cases were identified of guards on Level 3, who have worked at AUC for more than 10 years and should have been on Level 4. The University will move them to Level 4, effective September 2011. In addition, 20 security guards in Levels 4 and 5, who have been working at AUC for more than 10 years, were not receiving salaries consistent with their time and level, and they will receive increases to bring them to the market value for their level (which will be above their colleagues on the same level who have less experience). To fund these increases, the University will reallocate a portion of the overtime budget and will not fill vacancies in the security office.

7- “Return of terminated security personnel”

No security guards have been terminated this year. Several contracts have not been renewed; a decision that may reflect either performance-based issues or changing operational needs of the University. The termination of an employee, on the other hand, requires an elaborate process and the approval of not only the direct supervisor, but also the area head.

8- “The departure of Dr. Mahmoud Zouk”

The University does not discuss the employment of specific individuals.

Custodians

1- “LE 200 for meal allowance”

The monthly meal allowance of LE 200 was included in the November 2010 pay scale revision with the understanding that no additional meal allowance would be considered.

2- “Take Friday and Saturday off”

All custodial staff currently take Friday off. In September of 2010, Saturday was a regular workday for all custodial staff. After negotiations with custodial workers last year, the University began in November 2010 providing all workers with one Saturday off per month. This means that workers have a five-day work week once a month. AUC is now prepared to arrange an additional five-day work week in each month, thereby moving half way toward giving all custodial staff two days off and a 35-hour work week. The second day off will not be a Saturday for all workers, but will be provided on a rotating schedule to ensure the University is able to maintain the required level of custodial service on Saturday. This will be achieved through the reallocation of resources in the housekeeping unit.

3- “Appointment of casual hire workers”

The use of temporary employees is a common management method to cover fluctuations in University needs during peak periods. All staff on a temporary basis are clearly informed of their provisional status at the University when they are hired.

Students

1- “Removal of 9 percent tuition fee increase for 2011-2012”

Any continuing student not able to fund his or her tuition will be provided with assistance sufficient to permit him or her to complete his or her degree. This is thanks to the larger pool of financial aid, which is about $26 million, including a recent million dollar gift earmarked for this purpose. There are still ample funds available and all students requiring assistance should apply. As explained in earlier messages, the University is not able to cancel the increase.

2- “A ceiling on tuition fees for continuing students”

A ceiling will not be placed on tuition fees for continuing students. Once again, however, the University will ensure that no student is prevented from continuing at AUC because of financial need. Payment plans will be introduced next semester that will allow our students and parents to select from a range of more flexible payment options.

3- “Effective representation of students during the decision-making process in strategic decisions that impact the lives of all students”

The University currently has student representation in the University Senate, including on the Senate Budget Committee, but would strongly encourage more active participation on the part of students in the decision making process. The administration reiterates a standing offer to student representatives to contribute their creative problem-solving skills in helping to address the current budget deficit. The University’s 2012 budget will be reviewed in an open forum on September 20 and the associated documents placed on the Web site. Any and all suggestions on how the University can meet its deficit and enhance its services are welcome.

4- “Take into account the general principles of human and employee rights in matters of personnel affairs”

The University subscribes fully to all principles of fairness and human dignity in all of its practices. Any situations where policies or practices do not reflect that belief should be identified and will be remedied.

5- “Development of educational services at the University in order to upgrade the status and name of AUC”

Provost Medhat Haroun recently sent an e-mail to the AUC community providing an overview of the current plan to further enhance the University’s academic programs. We encourage all students to read the e-mail overview and interested students may also request a copy of the plan from the provost’s office. All comments and suggestions are welcome.

6- “Prevent any security interference in the political activities of students”

The University’s new freedom of expression policy expressly prohibits interference in the expression of any view, political or otherwise, by anyone as long as the regular operation of the University is not disturbed.

7- “Do not hold students accountable for absence during the protest”

All members of the AUC community, including students, are accountable for their actions and the associated consequences. Students who elect to miss class do so of their own volition and fully knowing the associated consequences. It is not consistent with the mission of the University or its level of academic excellence to expect that the administration would interfere with academic policies regarding class attendance.

Egypt's Emergency Law

2011-09-13T11:25:00.006+02:00

A rally was held on Friday, September 9th, in Tahrir Square. Termed "Friday of Returning to Course," the protesters took issue with the ongoing military trials of civilians which have plagued Egypt. ("Opposition Slams Key Political Laws," Al Ahram Weekly, September 8, 2011) Further, protesters expressed their dissatisfaction with the military rule of Egypt in general. Most of the protesters were secular activists and leftists. The MB boycotted the event. Some of those present included the Democratic Front, and Mohammed El Baradei. ("Egyptians Protest Against Military Rule," Al Jazeera, September 9, 2011.)

Perhaps the Islamists are not all bad. They are putting some muscle behind their efforts to expand the rights of Egyptians, and are willing to face down the SCAF on some key issues.

The emergency law has been extended in Egypt. The Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) had added new powers to the Emergency Law on Sunday, September 11, 2011. This action has been condemned by the Muslim Brotherhood ("MB"), their affiliate, the Freedom and Justice Party, and the Jama'a al Islamiya. ("Islamist Groups Condemn Expansion of Emergency Law," Al Masry Al Youm, September 12, 2011) The emergency law has been in force for the past 30 years in Egypt. Removing the Emergency Law was one of the key demands of the Jan 25th Revolution. ("Despite Revolution, Emergency Law Remains in Force," Al Masry Al Youm, July 17, 2011)

The SCAF said Sunday that it will use the Emergency Law to punish new infractions like blocking roads, publishing false information, and weapons possession. The Emergency Law allows wide powers of detention, and military trials. ("Egypt Said to Toughen Emergency Laws," Al Masry Al Youm, September 12, 2011)